Recent bilateral engagement has centered on the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which produced agreement in principle on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. Officials established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate specific cuts on non-sensitive products and address market-access issues, alongside commitments for expanded U.S. agricultural exports and aircraft purchases. A one-year truce suspending higher reciprocal tariffs remains in place through November 2026, with replacement Section 301 duties kept within previously negotiated caps. Follow-on talks, including an anticipated Xi visit to Washington in September and further summits, continue to advance the framework. These verified diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader expectations of a tariff accord materializing before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
90% chance
$242,462 Vol.
$242,462 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
90% chance
$242,462 Vol.
$242,462 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral engagement has centered on the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which produced agreement in principle on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. Officials established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate specific cuts on non-sensitive products and address market-access issues, alongside commitments for expanded U.S. agricultural exports and aircraft purchases. A one-year truce suspending higher reciprocal tariffs remains in place through November 2026, with replacement Section 301 duties kept within previously negotiated caps. Follow-on talks, including an anticipated Xi visit to Washington in September and further summits, continue to advance the framework. These verified diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader expectations of a tariff accord materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$242,462End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral engagement has centered on the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which produced agreement in principle on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. Officials established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate specific cuts on non-sensitive products and address market-access issues, alongside commitments for expanded U.S. agricultural exports and aircraft purchases. A one-year truce suspending higher reciprocal tariffs remains in place through November 2026, with replacement Section 301 duties kept within previously negotiated caps. Follow-on talks, including an anticipated Xi visit to Washington in September and further summits, continue to advance the framework. These verified diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader expectations of a tariff accord materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$242,462End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent bilateral engagement has centered on the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which produced agreement in principle on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. Officials established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate specific cuts on non-sensitive products and address market-access issues, alongside commitments for expanded U.S. agricultural exports and aircraft purchases. A one-year truce suspending higher reciprocal tariffs remains in place through November 2026, with replacement Section 301 duties kept within previously negotiated caps. Follow-on talks, including an anticipated Xi visit to Washington in September and further summits, continue to advance the framework. These verified diplomatic and institutional steps underpin trader expectations of a tariff accord materializing before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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