Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Economy·Macro Indicators

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

icon for U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Economy·Macro Indicators

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

Jan 20, 2027

Jan 20, 2027

3.5–3.9% 27.1%

2.0–2.4% 10.7%

4.5%+ 8%

1.5–1.9% 5.5%

Polymarket

$85,294 Vol.

3.5–3.9% 27.1%

2.0–2.4% 10.7%

4.5%+ 8%

1.5–1.9% 5.5%

Polymarket

$85,294 Vol.

<1.0%

$943 Vol.

<1%

1.0–1.4%

$1,260 Vol.

2%

1.5–1.9%

$2,642 Vol.

6%

2.0–2.4%

$4,341 Vol.

11%

2.5–2.9%

$21,796 Vol.

4%

3.0–3.4%

$0 Vol.

-

3.5–3.9%

$36,906 Vol.

27%

4.0-4.4%

$8,442 Vol.

2%

4.5%+

$8,964 Vol.

8%

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent energy price surges tied to the Middle East conflict represent the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the UK annual inflation 2026 market, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting CPI to peak near 3.2% in 2026 Q4 before easing. July 2026 CPI printed at 2.9%, up from 2.6% in June, while independent forecasts cluster around 3.1–3.6% for the year amid elevated wholesale gas and oil costs feeding through to household bills and supply chains. Market-implied odds favor the 3.5–3.9% band at 27.1%, reflecting expectations that indirect effects and base comparisons will lift the annual average above recent readings. Loosening labor market conditions and subdued wage growth are seen capping second-round risks, though upside uncertainty around conflict duration keeps lower outcomes such as 2.0–2.4% priced at just 10.7%. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming Ofgem price cap adjustments and BoE communications on monetary policy restraint.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarThis is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$85,294
End Date
Jan 20, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent energy price surges tied to the Middle East conflict represent the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the UK annual inflation 2026 market, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting CPI to peak near 3.2% in 2026 Q4 before easing. July 2026 CPI printed at 2.9%, up from 2.6% in June, while independent forecasts cluster around 3.1–3.6% for the year amid elevated wholesale gas and oil costs feeding through to household bills and supply chains. Market-implied odds favor the 3.5–3.9% band at 27.1%, reflecting expectations that indirect effects and base comparisons will lift the annual average above recent readings. Loosening labor market conditions and subdued wage growth are seen capping second-round risks, though upside uncertainty around conflict duration keeps lower outcomes such as 2.0–2.4% priced at just 10.7%. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming Ofgem price cap adjustments and BoE communications on monetary policy restraint.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarThis is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$85,294
End Date
Jan 20, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Related

icon for Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

37%
icon for Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

48%
icon for Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?

Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?

30%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.K. Annual Inflation 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.5–3.9%" at 27%, followed by "2.0–2.4%" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.K. Annual Inflation 2026" has generated $85.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.K. Annual Inflation 2026," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "U.K. Annual Inflation 2026" is "3.5–3.9%" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.0–2.4%" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "U.K. Annual Inflation 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.