Recent U.S. economic data, including the August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential monetary tightening. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, remains above the Fed’s 2% target amid lingering supply pressures, supporting the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee’s June projections already incorporated more hawkish dots, while futures markets price roughly even odds of a September move higher. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether upcoming inflation and employment figures will sustain the case for one additional hike or allow a hold through year-end, with September CPI and the September 15-16 policy decision serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 5.9%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$534,096 Vol.
$534,096 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 5.9%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$534,096 Vol.
$534,096 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$135,649 Vol.
6%
No change
$86,064 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$138,626 Vol.
45%
50+ bps increase
$88,764 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data, including the August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential monetary tightening. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, remains above the Fed’s 2% target amid lingering supply pressures, supporting the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee’s June projections already incorporated more hawkish dots, while futures markets price roughly even odds of a September move higher. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether upcoming inflation and employment figures will sustain the case for one additional hike or allow a hold through year-end, with September CPI and the September 15-16 policy decision serving as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$534,096End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data, including the August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential monetary tightening. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, remains above the Fed’s 2% target amid lingering supply pressures, supporting the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee’s June projections already incorporated more hawkish dots, while futures markets price roughly even odds of a September move higher. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether upcoming inflation and employment figures will sustain the case for one additional hike or allow a hold through year-end, with September CPI and the September 15-16 policy decision serving as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$534,096End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data, including the August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced labor market resilience and shifted trader focus toward potential monetary tightening. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, remains above the Fed’s 2% target amid lingering supply pressures, supporting the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee’s June projections already incorporated more hawkish dots, while futures markets price roughly even odds of a September move higher. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether upcoming inflation and employment figures will sustain the case for one additional hike or allow a hold through year-end, with September CPI and the September 15-16 policy decision serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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