Recent economic releases have created a near-even split in trader sentiment for the June–September FOMC sequence, with Pause–Pause–Pause and Other each at 50.5% implied probability. June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target amid elevated inflation readings driven by energy and supply shocks, while August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at +162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee has emphasized price stability, marked up 2026 inflation projections, and removed easing signals, leaving September’s decision contested as markets weigh resilient labor conditions against the need for further disinflation. The tight odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will support another pause or prompt a 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the dot plot’s median path toward 3.8% by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 51%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$832,106 Vol.
$832,106 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
51%
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 51%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$832,106 Vol.
$832,106 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$318,195 Vol.
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,115 Vol.
1%
Other
$358,919 Vol.
51%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic releases have created a near-even split in trader sentiment for the June–September FOMC sequence, with Pause–Pause–Pause and Other each at 50.5% implied probability. June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target amid elevated inflation readings driven by energy and supply shocks, while August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at +162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee has emphasized price stability, marked up 2026 inflation projections, and removed easing signals, leaving September’s decision contested as markets weigh resilient labor conditions against the need for further disinflation. The tight odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will support another pause or prompt a 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the dot plot’s median path toward 3.8% by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$832,106End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic releases have created a near-even split in trader sentiment for the June–September FOMC sequence, with Pause–Pause–Pause and Other each at 50.5% implied probability. June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target amid elevated inflation readings driven by energy and supply shocks, while August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at +162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee has emphasized price stability, marked up 2026 inflation projections, and removed easing signals, leaving September’s decision contested as markets weigh resilient labor conditions against the need for further disinflation. The tight odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will support another pause or prompt a 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the dot plot’s median path toward 3.8% by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$832,106End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic releases have created a near-even split in trader sentiment for the June–September FOMC sequence, with Pause–Pause–Pause and Other each at 50.5% implied probability. June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target amid elevated inflation readings driven by energy and supply shocks, while August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at +162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee has emphasized price stability, marked up 2026 inflation projections, and removed easing signals, leaving September’s decision contested as markets weigh resilient labor conditions against the need for further disinflation. The tight odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will support another pause or prompt a 25-basis-point hike, consistent with the dot plot’s median path toward 3.8% by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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