**The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting elevated term premia driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, heavy Treasury supply amid rising federal debt, and a hawkish policy outlook.** Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled limited near-term easing, with futures pricing a notable chance of a September 16 rate hike and higher-for-longer expectations extending into 2027–2028. Recent data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core measures still elevated, while labor-market softening has been offset by robust nominal growth. Geopolitical energy pressures and fiscal deficits have further lifted real yields and reduced demand for long-duration bonds. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI and PPI releases on September 10–11, followed by the FOMC’s updated projections, which will shape market-implied paths for yields through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 30, 2026
6.00%
39%
5.80%
50%
5.70%
50%
5.65%
50%
5.60%
50%
5.55%
50%
5.50%
51%
5.45%
61%
5.40%
64%
$0.00 Vol.
6.00%
$0 Vol.
39%
5.80%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.70%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.65%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.60%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.55%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.50%
$0 Vol.
51%
5.45%
$0 Vol.
61%
5.40%
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting elevated term premia driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, heavy Treasury supply amid rising federal debt, and a hawkish policy outlook.** Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled limited near-term easing, with futures pricing a notable chance of a September 16 rate hike and higher-for-longer expectations extending into 2027–2028. Recent data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core measures still elevated, while labor-market softening has been offset by robust nominal growth. Geopolitical energy pressures and fiscal deficits have further lifted real yields and reduced demand for long-duration bonds. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI and PPI releases on September 10–11, followed by the FOMC’s updated projections, which will shape market-implied paths for yields through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting elevated term premia driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, heavy Treasury supply amid rising federal debt, and a hawkish policy outlook.** Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled limited near-term easing, with futures pricing a notable chance of a September 16 rate hike and higher-for-longer expectations extending into 2027–2028. Recent data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core measures still elevated, while labor-market softening has been offset by robust nominal growth. Geopolitical energy pressures and fiscal deficits have further lifted real yields and reduced demand for long-duration bonds. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI and PPI releases on September 10–11, followed by the FOMC’s updated projections, which will shape market-implied paths for yields through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting elevated term premia driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, heavy Treasury supply amid rising federal debt, and a hawkish policy outlook.** Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled limited near-term easing, with futures pricing a notable chance of a September 16 rate hike and higher-for-longer expectations extending into 2027–2028. Recent data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July and core measures still elevated, while labor-market softening has been offset by robust nominal growth. Geopolitical energy pressures and fiscal deficits have further lifted real yields and reduced demand for long-duration bonds. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI and PPI releases on September 10–11, followed by the FOMC’s updated projections, which will shape market-implied paths for yields through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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