Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market showing stronger-than-expected August job gains, has shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 2026 rate hike. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot revealed nine officials projecting higher rates by year-end, while recent speeches emphasize the need for clearer disinflation progress before easing. Markets now price roughly 40-60 basis points of tightening this year, with the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data as near-term catalysts. This hawkish pivot contrasts with earlier expectations of steady policy, reflecting updated economic resilience and supply-side price pressures that have kept core readings elevated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated72% chance
$8,753,900 Vol.
$8,753,900 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
72% chance
$8,753,900 Vol.
$8,753,900 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market showing stronger-than-expected August job gains, has shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 2026 rate hike. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot revealed nine officials projecting higher rates by year-end, while recent speeches emphasize the need for clearer disinflation progress before easing. Markets now price roughly 40-60 basis points of tightening this year, with the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data as near-term catalysts. This hawkish pivot contrasts with earlier expectations of steady policy, reflecting updated economic resilience and supply-side price pressures that have kept core readings elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,753,900End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market showing stronger-than-expected August job gains, has shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 2026 rate hike. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot revealed nine officials projecting higher rates by year-end, while recent speeches emphasize the need for clearer disinflation progress before easing. Markets now price roughly 40-60 basis points of tightening this year, with the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data as near-term catalysts. This hawkish pivot contrasts with earlier expectations of steady policy, reflecting updated economic resilience and supply-side price pressures that have kept core readings elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,753,900End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market showing stronger-than-expected August job gains, has shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 2026 rate hike. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot revealed nine officials projecting higher rates by year-end, while recent speeches emphasize the need for clearer disinflation progress before easing. Markets now price roughly 40-60 basis points of tightening this year, with the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data as near-term catalysts. This hawkish pivot contrasts with earlier expectations of steady policy, reflecting updated economic resilience and supply-side price pressures that have kept core readings elevated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions