Jerome Powell faces no active criminal proceedings or credible evidence of misconduct that could result in imprisonment before 2027, underpinning the 94.7% market-implied probability for “No.” The prior Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and Powell’s 2025 congressional testimony closed in April 2026 after a federal judge quashed subpoenas, citing zero evidence of fraud or false statements beyond political disagreement. As Fed Chair through at least May 2026, Powell’s institutional role and the central bank’s independence further insulate him from personal liability. While renewed investigations or unforeseen political developments could theoretically alter this trajectory, the absence of substantiated charges supports the strong trader consensus reflected in current odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell faces no active criminal proceedings or credible evidence of misconduct that could result in imprisonment before 2027, underpinning the 94.7% market-implied probability for “No.” The prior Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and Powell’s 2025 congressional testimony closed in April 2026 after a federal judge quashed subpoenas, citing zero evidence of fraud or false statements beyond political disagreement. As Fed Chair through at least May 2026, Powell’s institutional role and the central bank’s independence further insulate him from personal liability. While renewed investigations or unforeseen political developments could theoretically alter this trajectory, the absence of substantiated charges supports the strong trader consensus reflected in current odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$5,665End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell faces no active criminal proceedings or credible evidence of misconduct that could result in imprisonment before 2027, underpinning the 94.7% market-implied probability for “No.” The prior Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and Powell’s 2025 congressional testimony closed in April 2026 after a federal judge quashed subpoenas, citing zero evidence of fraud or false statements beyond political disagreement. As Fed Chair through at least May 2026, Powell’s institutional role and the central bank’s independence further insulate him from personal liability. While renewed investigations or unforeseen political developments could theoretically alter this trajectory, the absence of substantiated charges supports the strong trader consensus reflected in current odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,665End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Jerome Powell faces no active criminal proceedings or credible evidence of misconduct that could result in imprisonment before 2027, underpinning the 94.7% market-implied probability for “No.” The prior Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and Powell’s 2025 congressional testimony closed in April 2026 after a federal judge quashed subpoenas, citing zero evidence of fraud or false statements beyond political disagreement. As Fed Chair through at least May 2026, Powell’s institutional role and the central bank’s independence further insulate him from personal liability. While renewed investigations or unforeseen political developments could theoretically alter this trajectory, the absence of substantiated charges supports the strong trader consensus reflected in current odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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