Strong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, combined with persistently elevated inflation have driven trader consensus toward a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The August jobs report reinforced views of economic resilience, prompting Citigroup and other forecasters to delay any easing until 2027 while lifting September hike odds in futures markets above 60%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has adopted a more hawkish tone, with projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates by year-end to address inflation running well above the 2% target amid supply shocks. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting now stands as the primary near-term catalyst, with market-implied probabilities reflecting capital-weighted sentiment that a 25-basis-point increase is the most likely next policy move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHike
82% chance
$10,636 Vol.
$10,636 Vol.
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
82% chance
$10,636 Vol.
$10,636 Vol.
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, combined with persistently elevated inflation have driven trader consensus toward a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The August jobs report reinforced views of economic resilience, prompting Citigroup and other forecasters to delay any easing until 2027 while lifting September hike odds in futures markets above 60%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has adopted a more hawkish tone, with projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates by year-end to address inflation running well above the 2% target amid supply shocks. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting now stands as the primary near-term catalyst, with market-implied probabilities reflecting capital-weighted sentiment that a 25-basis-point increase is the most likely next policy move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$10,636End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, combined with persistently elevated inflation have driven trader consensus toward a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The August jobs report reinforced views of economic resilience, prompting Citigroup and other forecasters to delay any easing until 2027 while lifting September hike odds in futures markets above 60%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has adopted a more hawkish tone, with projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates by year-end to address inflation running well above the 2% target amid supply shocks. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting now stands as the primary near-term catalyst, with market-implied probabilities reflecting capital-weighted sentiment that a 25-basis-point increase is the most likely next policy move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$10,636End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, combined with persistently elevated inflation have driven trader consensus toward a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The August jobs report reinforced views of economic resilience, prompting Citigroup and other forecasters to delay any easing until 2027 while lifting September hike odds in futures markets above 60%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has adopted a more hawkish tone, with projections showing multiple officials expecting higher rates by year-end to address inflation running well above the 2% target amid supply shocks. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting now stands as the primary near-term catalyst, with market-implied probabilities reflecting capital-weighted sentiment that a 25-basis-point increase is the most likely next policy move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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