**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 centers on 3.75–4.25%, with 4.0% as the clear leader at 41.3%.** This pricing reflects the current target range of 3.50–3.75% (effective rate near 3.63%) plus the market-implied probability of zero to two 25-basis-point hikes over the remainder of the year. The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections drove much of the shift, with the median participant raising the year-end 2026 rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and with nine of 19 officials showing at least one hike. Stronger-than-expected labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, have reinforced views of economic resilience. Inflation remains elevated, with recent PCE readings around 3.6–4.1% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, influenced by energy prices and supply-side pressures. Upcoming September CPI/PPI releases and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting are the next key catalysts that could alter near-term hike probabilities. Futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a September hike following the August jobs report, though many private forecasters still anticipate a hold through year-end before any easing in 2027. The distribution of outcomes around 3.75–4.25% captures uncertainty over whether the Fed will deliver one or two tightening moves versus remaining on hold amid mixed inflation momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0% 41.6%
3.75% 22.6%
4.25% 20.9%
3.5% 6.4%
$6,795,861 Vol.
$6,795,861 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
<1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
<1%
3.5%
6%
3.75%
23%
4.0%
42%
4.25%
23%
≥ 4.5%
5%
4.0% 41.6%
3.75% 22.6%
4.25% 20.9%
3.5% 6.4%
$6,795,861 Vol.
$6,795,861 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$252,044 Vol.
1%
1.25
$149,939 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$147,387 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$149,998 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$265,143 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,877 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$175,659 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$62,291 Vol.
<1%
3.0%
$489,647 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$67,053 Vol.
<1%
3.5%
$203,436 Vol.
6%
3.75%
$533,159 Vol.
23%
4.0%
$1,370,913 Vol.
42%
4.25%
$430,802 Vol.
23%
≥ 4.5%
$2,409,514 Vol.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 centers on 3.75–4.25%, with 4.0% as the clear leader at 41.3%.** This pricing reflects the current target range of 3.50–3.75% (effective rate near 3.63%) plus the market-implied probability of zero to two 25-basis-point hikes over the remainder of the year.
The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections drove much of the shift, with the median participant raising the year-end 2026 rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and with nine of 19 officials showing at least one hike. Stronger-than-expected labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, have reinforced views of economic resilience. Inflation remains elevated, with recent PCE readings around 3.6–4.1% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, influenced by energy prices and supply-side pressures.
Upcoming September CPI/PPI releases and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting are the next key catalysts that could alter near-term hike probabilities. Futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a September hike following the August jobs report, though many private forecasters still anticipate a hold through year-end before any easing in 2027. The distribution of outcomes around 3.75–4.25% captures uncertainty over whether the Fed will deliver one or two tightening moves versus remaining on hold amid mixed inflation momentum.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,795,861End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 centers on 3.75–4.25%, with 4.0% as the clear leader at 41.3%.** This pricing reflects the current target range of 3.50–3.75% (effective rate near 3.63%) plus the market-implied probability of zero to two 25-basis-point hikes over the remainder of the year.
The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections drove much of the shift, with the median participant raising the year-end 2026 rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and with nine of 19 officials showing at least one hike. Stronger-than-expected labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, have reinforced views of economic resilience. Inflation remains elevated, with recent PCE readings around 3.6–4.1% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, influenced by energy prices and supply-side pressures.
Upcoming September CPI/PPI releases and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting are the next key catalysts that could alter near-term hike probabilities. Futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a September hike following the August jobs report, though many private forecasters still anticipate a hold through year-end before any easing in 2027. The distribution of outcomes around 3.75–4.25% captures uncertainty over whether the Fed will deliver one or two tightening moves versus remaining on hold amid mixed inflation momentum.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,795,861End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on the Polymarket for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 centers on 3.75–4.25%, with 4.0% as the clear leader at 41.3%.** This pricing reflects the current target range of 3.50–3.75% (effective rate near 3.63%) plus the market-implied probability of zero to two 25-basis-point hikes over the remainder of the year. The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections drove much of the shift, with the median participant raising the year-end 2026 rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and with nine of 19 officials showing at least one hike. Stronger-than-expected labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, have reinforced views of economic resilience. Inflation remains elevated, with recent PCE readings around 3.6–4.1% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, influenced by energy prices and supply-side pressures. Upcoming September CPI/PPI releases and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting are the next key catalysts that could alter near-term hike probabilities. Futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a September hike following the August jobs report, though many private forecasters still anticipate a hold through year-end before any easing in 2027. The distribution of outcomes around 3.75–4.25% captures uncertainty over whether the Fed will deliver one or two tightening moves versus remaining on hold amid mixed inflation momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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