Trump’s hand-picked Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed in May 2026, faces ongoing public pressure for lower rates amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings, yet the June 2026 Supreme Court rulings explicitly shielded the central bank from at-will removal unlike other independent agencies. This legal firewall, combined with White House statements underscoring respect for monetary-policy independence and Warsh’s own commitments to follow data over political directives, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against any formal firing attempt this year. Traders assign only modest tail risk to escalation if Warsh delivers a hawkish September rate decision or inflation reaccelerates sharply, scenarios that could test but have not yet breached the post-ruling consensus around Fed autonomy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$11,965 Vol.
$11,965 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$11,965 Vol.
$11,965 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s hand-picked Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed in May 2026, faces ongoing public pressure for lower rates amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings, yet the June 2026 Supreme Court rulings explicitly shielded the central bank from at-will removal unlike other independent agencies. This legal firewall, combined with White House statements underscoring respect for monetary-policy independence and Warsh’s own commitments to follow data over political directives, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against any formal firing attempt this year. Traders assign only modest tail risk to escalation if Warsh delivers a hawkish September rate decision or inflation reaccelerates sharply, scenarios that could test but have not yet breached the post-ruling consensus around Fed autonomy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,965End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s hand-picked Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed in May 2026, faces ongoing public pressure for lower rates amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings, yet the June 2026 Supreme Court rulings explicitly shielded the central bank from at-will removal unlike other independent agencies. This legal firewall, combined with White House statements underscoring respect for monetary-policy independence and Warsh’s own commitments to follow data over political directives, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against any formal firing attempt this year. Traders assign only modest tail risk to escalation if Warsh delivers a hawkish September rate decision or inflation reaccelerates sharply, scenarios that could test but have not yet breached the post-ruling consensus around Fed autonomy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,965End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s hand-picked Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed in May 2026, faces ongoing public pressure for lower rates amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings, yet the June 2026 Supreme Court rulings explicitly shielded the central bank from at-will removal unlike other independent agencies. This legal firewall, combined with White House statements underscoring respect for monetary-policy independence and Warsh’s own commitments to follow data over political directives, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against any formal firing attempt this year. Traders assign only modest tail risk to escalation if Warsh delivers a hawkish September rate decision or inflation reaccelerates sharply, scenarios that could test but have not yet breached the post-ruling consensus around Fed autonomy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions