Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting his position as a second-term president with no evident institutional or personal pressures to step down. Primary drivers include the absence of major health disclosures, ongoing legal resolutions, or party demands that historically precede such moves, alongside his consistent public statements affirming commitment to the full term through 2029. The Electoral College outcome and Senate dynamics further reduce leverage points for resignation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical events requiring incapacity determinations, unforeseen indictments with severe sentencing timelines, or acute family or succession pressures emerging within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting his position as a second-term president with no evident institutional or personal pressures to step down. Primary drivers include the absence of major health disclosures, ongoing legal resolutions, or party demands that historically precede such moves, alongside his consistent public statements affirming commitment to the full term through 2029. The Electoral College outcome and Senate dynamics further reduce leverage points for resignation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical events requiring incapacity determinations, unforeseen indictments with severe sentencing timelines, or acute family or succession pressures emerging within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$23,487End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting his position as a second-term president with no evident institutional or personal pressures to step down. Primary drivers include the absence of major health disclosures, ongoing legal resolutions, or party demands that historically precede such moves, alongside his consistent public statements affirming commitment to the full term through 2029. The Electoral College outcome and Senate dynamics further reduce leverage points for resignation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical events requiring incapacity determinations, unforeseen indictments with severe sentencing timelines, or acute family or succession pressures emerging within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,487End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting his position as a second-term president with no evident institutional or personal pressures to step down. Primary drivers include the absence of major health disclosures, ongoing legal resolutions, or party demands that historically precede such moves, alongside his consistent public statements affirming commitment to the full term through 2029. The Electoral College outcome and Senate dynamics further reduce leverage points for resignation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical events requiring incapacity determinations, unforeseen indictments with severe sentencing timelines, or acute family or succession pressures emerging within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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