President Donald Trump's second term, set to run through January 2029, faces structural barriers to early departure that sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability he remains in office past 2026. Removal requires either House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment sustained by Congress, thresholds unmet despite scattered Democratic resolutions and fitness discussions. Recent filings have been referred to committee without advancement, while Republican congressional majorities and Cabinet alignment continue to block momentum. Midterm outcomes in November 2026 could alter House control but leave Senate dynamics and constitutional hurdles intact through early 2027. No verified health events or bipartisan consensus have emerged to shift these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$11,409,867 Vol.
$11,409,867 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$11,409,867 Vol.
$11,409,867 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's second term, set to run through January 2029, faces structural barriers to early departure that sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability he remains in office past 2026. Removal requires either House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment sustained by Congress, thresholds unmet despite scattered Democratic resolutions and fitness discussions. Recent filings have been referred to committee without advancement, while Republican congressional majorities and Cabinet alignment continue to block momentum. Midterm outcomes in November 2026 could alter House control but leave Senate dynamics and constitutional hurdles intact through early 2027. No verified health events or bipartisan consensus have emerged to shift these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,409,867End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's second term, set to run through January 2029, faces structural barriers to early departure that sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability he remains in office past 2026. Removal requires either House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment sustained by Congress, thresholds unmet despite scattered Democratic resolutions and fitness discussions. Recent filings have been referred to committee without advancement, while Republican congressional majorities and Cabinet alignment continue to block momentum. Midterm outcomes in November 2026 could alter House control but leave Senate dynamics and constitutional hurdles intact through early 2027. No verified health events or bipartisan consensus have emerged to shift these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,409,867End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump's second term, set to run through January 2029, faces structural barriers to early departure that sustain trader consensus around a 94.5% probability he remains in office past 2026. Removal requires either House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment sustained by Congress, thresholds unmet despite scattered Democratic resolutions and fitness discussions. Recent filings have been referred to committee without advancement, while Republican congressional majorities and Cabinet alignment continue to block momentum. Midterm outcomes in November 2026 could alter House control but leave Senate dynamics and constitutional hurdles intact through early 2027. No verified health events or bipartisan consensus have emerged to shift these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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