Recent upward revisions to Germany’s first-half 2026 GDP—Q1 at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter and Q2 at +0.3%—along with export-led momentum have anchored trader consensus around 1.0-1.2% year-over-year growth for Q3, reflected in its 40% market-implied probability. Expansionary fiscal measures on infrastructure and defense continue to support activity, while recovering Rhine water levels have eased near-term transport constraints that previously threatened a sharper Q3 slowdown. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to weigh on private consumption, capping upside and supporting the 14% odds on 1.3% or higher. Leading indicators such as the ifo business climate show only gradual improvement amid structural challenges, consistent with Kiel Institute and Deutsche Bank forecasts pointing to modest sequential gains through year-end. The Q3 flash release due October 30 remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.0-1.2% 40%
1.3%+ 14%
0.7-0.9% 14%
≤0.0% 6.0%
$32,554 Vol.
$32,554 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
≤0.0%
6%
0.1-0.3%
1%
0.4-0.6%
5%
0.7-0.9%
14%
1.0-1.2%
40%
1.3%+
14%
1.0-1.2% 40%
1.3%+ 14%
0.7-0.9% 14%
≤0.0% 6.0%
$32,554 Vol.
$32,554 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
≤0.0%
$1,310 Vol.
6%
0.1-0.3%
$1,434 Vol.
1%
0.4-0.6%
$690 Vol.
5%
0.7-0.9%
$5,501 Vol.
14%
1.0-1.2%
$19,550 Vol.
40%
1.3%+
$4,068 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany’s first-half 2026 GDP—Q1 at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter and Q2 at +0.3%—along with export-led momentum have anchored trader consensus around 1.0-1.2% year-over-year growth for Q3, reflected in its 40% market-implied probability. Expansionary fiscal measures on infrastructure and defense continue to support activity, while recovering Rhine water levels have eased near-term transport constraints that previously threatened a sharper Q3 slowdown. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to weigh on private consumption, capping upside and supporting the 14% odds on 1.3% or higher. Leading indicators such as the ifo business climate show only gradual improvement amid structural challenges, consistent with Kiel Institute and Deutsche Bank forecasts pointing to modest sequential gains through year-end. The Q3 flash release due October 30 remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volume
$32,554End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany’s first-half 2026 GDP—Q1 at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter and Q2 at +0.3%—along with export-led momentum have anchored trader consensus around 1.0-1.2% year-over-year growth for Q3, reflected in its 40% market-implied probability. Expansionary fiscal measures on infrastructure and defense continue to support activity, while recovering Rhine water levels have eased near-term transport constraints that previously threatened a sharper Q3 slowdown. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to weigh on private consumption, capping upside and supporting the 14% odds on 1.3% or higher. Leading indicators such as the ifo business climate show only gradual improvement amid structural challenges, consistent with Kiel Institute and Deutsche Bank forecasts pointing to modest sequential gains through year-end. The Q3 flash release due October 30 remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,554End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent upward revisions to Germany’s first-half 2026 GDP—Q1 at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter and Q2 at +0.3%—along with export-led momentum have anchored trader consensus around 1.0-1.2% year-over-year growth for Q3, reflected in its 40% market-implied probability. Expansionary fiscal measures on infrastructure and defense continue to support activity, while recovering Rhine water levels have eased near-term transport constraints that previously threatened a sharper Q3 slowdown. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to weigh on private consumption, capping upside and supporting the 14% odds on 1.3% or higher. Leading indicators such as the ifo business climate show only gradual improvement amid structural challenges, consistent with Kiel Institute and Deutsche Bank forecasts pointing to modest sequential gains through year-end. The Q3 flash release due October 30 remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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