The escalation of conflict in the Middle East and associated surge in energy prices represent the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026 at 78.3% implied probability. Official forecasts from the IMF, Bank of England, and independent economists cluster near 1.0-1.2%, reflecting a robust 0.6% Q1 expansion that has given way to subdued underlying momentum, with Q2 growth at just 0.1-0.3% and further softening projected through year-end as higher costs erode real incomes and tighten financial conditions. Elevated CPI readings above 3% and a widening output gap reinforce expectations of restrained expansion below potential, while upcoming data releases and fiscal policy decisions could introduce modest volatility around these levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1-2% 78.4%
0-1% 11%
2-3% 2.9%
<0 2.4%
$82,133 Vol.
$82,133 Vol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
2%
0-1%
11%
1-2%
78%
2-3%
3%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 78.4%
0-1% 11%
2-3% 2.9%
<0 2.4%
$82,133 Vol.
$82,133 Vol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
$11,853 Vol.
2%
0-1%
$20,036 Vol.
11%
1-2%
$29,396 Vol.
78%
2-3%
$4,612 Vol.
3%
3-4%
$3,544 Vol.
2%
4-5%
$8,730 Vol.
<1%
5%+
$3,961 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The escalation of conflict in the Middle East and associated surge in energy prices represent the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026 at 78.3% implied probability. Official forecasts from the IMF, Bank of England, and independent economists cluster near 1.0-1.2%, reflecting a robust 0.6% Q1 expansion that has given way to subdued underlying momentum, with Q2 growth at just 0.1-0.3% and further softening projected through year-end as higher costs erode real incomes and tighten financial conditions. Elevated CPI readings above 3% and a widening output gap reinforce expectations of restrained expansion below potential, while upcoming data releases and fiscal policy decisions could introduce modest volatility around these levels.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$82,133End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The escalation of conflict in the Middle East and associated surge in energy prices represent the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026 at 78.3% implied probability. Official forecasts from the IMF, Bank of England, and independent economists cluster near 1.0-1.2%, reflecting a robust 0.6% Q1 expansion that has given way to subdued underlying momentum, with Q2 growth at just 0.1-0.3% and further softening projected through year-end as higher costs erode real incomes and tighten financial conditions. Elevated CPI readings above 3% and a widening output gap reinforce expectations of restrained expansion below potential, while upcoming data releases and fiscal policy decisions could introduce modest volatility around these levels.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$82,133End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The escalation of conflict in the Middle East and associated surge in energy prices represent the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026 at 78.3% implied probability. Official forecasts from the IMF, Bank of England, and independent economists cluster near 1.0-1.2%, reflecting a robust 0.6% Q1 expansion that has given way to subdued underlying momentum, with Q2 growth at just 0.1-0.3% and further softening projected through year-end as higher costs erode real incomes and tighten financial conditions. Elevated CPI readings above 3% and a widening output gap reinforce expectations of restrained expansion below potential, while upcoming data releases and fiscal policy decisions could introduce modest volatility around these levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions