Recent moderation in underlying price pressures positions the 0.2% Core CPI month-over-month outcome as the leading trader consensus at 53% implied probability for the August 2026 reading, scheduled for release September 11. July’s 0.2% Core CPI MoM print—following a flat June—reflected cooling shelter components and subdued goods prices, with the year-over-year rate easing to 2.5%. Analyst forecasts from sources such as TD Securities cluster near 0.24%, consistent with contained services ex-shelter inflation and moderating wage pass-through. The 0.3% bucket at 29% captures upside risks from potential rebounds in transportation or shelter, while softer prints remain less favored. This distribution aligns with market-implied odds ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the data will inform policy rate expectations amid ongoing debates over holding versus hiking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2% 53%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13%
0.4% 5.5%
$10,647 Vol.
$10,647 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤0.0%
5%
0.1%
13%
0.2%
53%
0.3%
31%
0.4%
5%
0.5%
2%
0.6%+
2%
0.2% 53%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13%
0.4% 5.5%
$10,647 Vol.
$10,647 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤0.0%
$397 Vol.
5%
0.1%
$928 Vol.
13%
0.2%
$6,518 Vol.
53%
0.3%
$1,814 Vol.
31%
0.4%
$325 Vol.
5%
0.5%
$344 Vol.
2%
0.6%+
$321 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in underlying price pressures positions the 0.2% Core CPI month-over-month outcome as the leading trader consensus at 53% implied probability for the August 2026 reading, scheduled for release September 11. July’s 0.2% Core CPI MoM print—following a flat June—reflected cooling shelter components and subdued goods prices, with the year-over-year rate easing to 2.5%. Analyst forecasts from sources such as TD Securities cluster near 0.24%, consistent with contained services ex-shelter inflation and moderating wage pass-through. The 0.3% bucket at 29% captures upside risks from potential rebounds in transportation or shelter, while softer prints remain less favored. This distribution aligns with market-implied odds ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the data will inform policy rate expectations amid ongoing debates over holding versus hiking.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$10,647End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in underlying price pressures positions the 0.2% Core CPI month-over-month outcome as the leading trader consensus at 53% implied probability for the August 2026 reading, scheduled for release September 11. July’s 0.2% Core CPI MoM print—following a flat June—reflected cooling shelter components and subdued goods prices, with the year-over-year rate easing to 2.5%. Analyst forecasts from sources such as TD Securities cluster near 0.24%, consistent with contained services ex-shelter inflation and moderating wage pass-through. The 0.3% bucket at 29% captures upside risks from potential rebounds in transportation or shelter, while softer prints remain less favored. This distribution aligns with market-implied odds ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the data will inform policy rate expectations amid ongoing debates over holding versus hiking.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$10,647End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in underlying price pressures positions the 0.2% Core CPI month-over-month outcome as the leading trader consensus at 53% implied probability for the August 2026 reading, scheduled for release September 11. July’s 0.2% Core CPI MoM print—following a flat June—reflected cooling shelter components and subdued goods prices, with the year-over-year rate easing to 2.5%. Analyst forecasts from sources such as TD Securities cluster near 0.24%, consistent with contained services ex-shelter inflation and moderating wage pass-through. The 0.3% bucket at 29% captures upside risks from potential rebounds in transportation or shelter, while softer prints remain less favored. This distribution aligns with market-implied odds ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the data will inform policy rate expectations amid ongoing debates over holding versus hiking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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