Market-implied odds for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around 5.0-5.5%, with the 5.00-5.49% band holding a 42.4% probability ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 28.9%. Recent Focus survey medians have eased modestly to 5.01%, aligning with the central bank’s lowered 5.1% projection and July’s 4.44% year-over-year print. Earlier upward revisions reflected oil-price pass-through, resilient domestic demand, and sticky services inflation, while the Selic easing cycle to 14.00% and softer growth forecasts have tempered expectations. Persistent risks from fiscal stimulus and administered prices continue to support the 5%+ range, with incoming CPI releases and the September Copom decision likely to refine trader positioning around the 4.5-5.5% corridor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 42.4%
4.50-4.99% 28.9%
5.50-5.99% 21.5%
4.00-4.49% 2.4%
$105,947 Vol.
$105,947 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
1%
4.00-4.49%
2%
4.50-4.99%
29%
5.00-5.49%
42%
5.50-5.99%
22%
6.00-6.49%
2%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
<1%
5.00-5.49% 42.4%
4.50-4.99% 28.9%
5.50-5.99% 21.5%
4.00-4.49% 2.4%
$105,947 Vol.
$105,947 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$6,480 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$6,362 Vol.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,840 Vol.
1%
4.00-4.49%
$14,843 Vol.
2%
4.50-4.99%
$18,146 Vol.
29%
5.00-5.49%
$15,649 Vol.
42%
5.50-5.99%
$10,915 Vol.
22%
6.00-6.49%
$7,549 Vol.
2%
6.50-6.99%
$7,036 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$5,128 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket-implied odds for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around 5.0-5.5%, with the 5.00-5.49% band holding a 42.4% probability ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 28.9%. Recent Focus survey medians have eased modestly to 5.01%, aligning with the central bank’s lowered 5.1% projection and July’s 4.44% year-over-year print. Earlier upward revisions reflected oil-price pass-through, resilient domestic demand, and sticky services inflation, while the Selic easing cycle to 14.00% and softer growth forecasts have tempered expectations. Persistent risks from fiscal stimulus and administered prices continue to support the 5%+ range, with incoming CPI releases and the September Copom decision likely to refine trader positioning around the 4.5-5.5% corridor.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$105,947End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket-implied odds for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around 5.0-5.5%, with the 5.00-5.49% band holding a 42.4% probability ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 28.9%. Recent Focus survey medians have eased modestly to 5.01%, aligning with the central bank’s lowered 5.1% projection and July’s 4.44% year-over-year print. Earlier upward revisions reflected oil-price pass-through, resilient domestic demand, and sticky services inflation, while the Selic easing cycle to 14.00% and softer growth forecasts have tempered expectations. Persistent risks from fiscal stimulus and administered prices continue to support the 5%+ range, with incoming CPI releases and the September Copom decision likely to refine trader positioning around the 4.5-5.5% corridor.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$105,947End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around 5.0-5.5%, with the 5.00-5.49% band holding a 42.4% probability ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 28.9%. Recent Focus survey medians have eased modestly to 5.01%, aligning with the central bank’s lowered 5.1% projection and July’s 4.44% year-over-year print. Earlier upward revisions reflected oil-price pass-through, resilient domestic demand, and sticky services inflation, while the Selic easing cycle to 14.00% and softer growth forecasts have tempered expectations. Persistent risks from fiscal stimulus and administered prices continue to support the 5%+ range, with incoming CPI releases and the September Copom decision likely to refine trader positioning around the 4.5-5.5% corridor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions