China’s 2026 inflation outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and persistent economic slack, with trader consensus heavily favoring the 0.6–1.0% band. Weak household consumption, a prolonged property sector adjustment, and industrial overcapacity continue to exert downward pressure on prices, as evidenced by soft retail sales and core CPI readings near 0.7–1.2% in recent months. Modest upward impulses from higher global energy costs tied to Middle East developments have lifted headline figures modestly from near-zero levels in 2025, yet these effects appear temporary amid limited pass-through. Incremental fiscal and monetary support, including potential targeted rate cuts, has not yet translated into broad reflation. Forecasters from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and ING project outcomes clustered around 0.9–1.2%, aligning closely with current market pricing and underscoring the balance between external cost pressures and structural demand weakness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0% 48%
0.1 – 0.5% 31.9%
1.1 – 1.5% 14%
2.0-2.4% 4.1%
$81,004 Vol.
$81,004 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<-1.0%
1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
2%
0.1 – 0.5%
32%
0.6 – 1.0%
48%
1.1 – 1.5%
14%
1.6 – 2.0%
3%
2.0-2.4%
4%
2.5%+
<1%
0.6 – 1.0% 48%
0.1 – 0.5% 31.9%
1.1 – 1.5% 14%
2.0-2.4% 4.1%
$81,004 Vol.
$81,004 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<-1.0%
$20,064 Vol.
1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$3,406 Vol.
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$4,836 Vol.
2%
0.1 – 0.5%
$6,272 Vol.
32%
0.6 – 1.0%
$12,413 Vol.
48%
1.1 – 1.5%
$15,771 Vol.
14%
1.6 – 2.0%
$6,701 Vol.
3%
2.0-2.4%
$8,119 Vol.
4%
2.5%+
$3,423 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/China’s 2026 inflation outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and persistent economic slack, with trader consensus heavily favoring the 0.6–1.0% band. Weak household consumption, a prolonged property sector adjustment, and industrial overcapacity continue to exert downward pressure on prices, as evidenced by soft retail sales and core CPI readings near 0.7–1.2% in recent months. Modest upward impulses from higher global energy costs tied to Middle East developments have lifted headline figures modestly from near-zero levels in 2025, yet these effects appear temporary amid limited pass-through. Incremental fiscal and monetary support, including potential targeted rate cuts, has not yet translated into broad reflation. Forecasters from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and ING project outcomes clustered around 0.9–1.2%, aligning closely with current market pricing and underscoring the balance between external cost pressures and structural demand weakness.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$81,004End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/China’s 2026 inflation outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and persistent economic slack, with trader consensus heavily favoring the 0.6–1.0% band. Weak household consumption, a prolonged property sector adjustment, and industrial overcapacity continue to exert downward pressure on prices, as evidenced by soft retail sales and core CPI readings near 0.7–1.2% in recent months. Modest upward impulses from higher global energy costs tied to Middle East developments have lifted headline figures modestly from near-zero levels in 2025, yet these effects appear temporary amid limited pass-through. Incremental fiscal and monetary support, including potential targeted rate cuts, has not yet translated into broad reflation. Forecasters from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and ING project outcomes clustered around 0.9–1.2%, aligning closely with current market pricing and underscoring the balance between external cost pressures and structural demand weakness.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$81,004End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s 2026 inflation outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and persistent economic slack, with trader consensus heavily favoring the 0.6–1.0% band. Weak household consumption, a prolonged property sector adjustment, and industrial overcapacity continue to exert downward pressure on prices, as evidenced by soft retail sales and core CPI readings near 0.7–1.2% in recent months. Modest upward impulses from higher global energy costs tied to Middle East developments have lifted headline figures modestly from near-zero levels in 2025, yet these effects appear temporary amid limited pass-through. Incremental fiscal and monetary support, including potential targeted rate cuts, has not yet translated into broad reflation. Forecasters from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and ING project outcomes clustered around 0.9–1.2%, aligning closely with current market pricing and underscoring the balance between external cost pressures and structural demand weakness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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