Recent softening in U.S. manufacturing momentum, with the August ISM Manufacturing PMI easing to 54.6 from July’s 55.6 peak, underpins the broad distribution of September 2026 market-implied odds centered on the mid-50s. Persistent price pressures, reflected in the unchanged 71.1 Prices Index, combined with slower new orders at 53.7 and declining backlogs, signal moderating demand amid tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East supply disruptions. Strong production at 58.3 and still-low customer inventories offer some support for continued expansion above 50, yet employment and import readings point to uneven momentum. Traders price in volatility ahead of the October 1 release, as component shifts in orders, supplier deliveries, and input costs could swing the headline within the 52–57 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0 to 55.9 29%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
52.0 to 52.9 15%
56.0 to 56.9 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
4%
50.0 to 50.9
1%
51.0 to 51.9
5%
52.0 to 52.9
15%
53.0 to 53.9
13%
54.0 to 54.9
17%
55.0 to 55.9
29%
56.0 to 56.9
14%
57.0 to 57.9
12%
58.0+
5%
55.0 to 55.9 29%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
52.0 to 52.9 15%
56.0 to 56.9 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
$160 Vol.
4%
50.0 to 50.9
$925 Vol.
1%
51.0 to 51.9
$636 Vol.
5%
52.0 to 52.9
$34 Vol.
15%
53.0 to 53.9
$18 Vol.
13%
54.0 to 54.9
$34 Vol.
17%
55.0 to 55.9
$33 Vol.
29%
56.0 to 56.9
$18 Vol.
14%
57.0 to 57.9
$17 Vol.
12%
58.0+
$169 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent softening in U.S. manufacturing momentum, with the August ISM Manufacturing PMI easing to 54.6 from July’s 55.6 peak, underpins the broad distribution of September 2026 market-implied odds centered on the mid-50s. Persistent price pressures, reflected in the unchanged 71.1 Prices Index, combined with slower new orders at 53.7 and declining backlogs, signal moderating demand amid tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East supply disruptions. Strong production at 58.3 and still-low customer inventories offer some support for continued expansion above 50, yet employment and import readings point to uneven momentum. Traders price in volatility ahead of the October 1 release, as component shifts in orders, supplier deliveries, and input costs could swing the headline within the 52–57 range.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$2,043End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent softening in U.S. manufacturing momentum, with the August ISM Manufacturing PMI easing to 54.6 from July’s 55.6 peak, underpins the broad distribution of September 2026 market-implied odds centered on the mid-50s. Persistent price pressures, reflected in the unchanged 71.1 Prices Index, combined with slower new orders at 53.7 and declining backlogs, signal moderating demand amid tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East supply disruptions. Strong production at 58.3 and still-low customer inventories offer some support for continued expansion above 50, yet employment and import readings point to uneven momentum. Traders price in volatility ahead of the October 1 release, as component shifts in orders, supplier deliveries, and input costs could swing the headline within the 52–57 range.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$2,043End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in U.S. manufacturing momentum, with the August ISM Manufacturing PMI easing to 54.6 from July’s 55.6 peak, underpins the broad distribution of September 2026 market-implied odds centered on the mid-50s. Persistent price pressures, reflected in the unchanged 71.1 Prices Index, combined with slower new orders at 53.7 and declining backlogs, signal moderating demand amid tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East supply disruptions. Strong production at 58.3 and still-low customer inventories offer some support for continued expansion above 50, yet employment and import readings point to uneven momentum. Traders price in volatility ahead of the October 1 release, as component shifts in orders, supplier deliveries, and input costs could swing the headline within the 52–57 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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