Recent transaction data and listing trends position the $663K–$689K range as the leading outcome for New York City’s median home value on September 30, with trader consensus at 45.6% implied probability. Modest year-over-year gains of 3–5% through mid-2026, supported by tightening supply in key boroughs and resilient buyer demand, have kept values clustered near recent medians around $689K for listings and $850K–$907K for sales. Seasonal slowdowns in late summer, combined with elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory shifts, have tempered upside momentum while reducing the odds of sharper declines below $636K. Key catalysts ahead include any final August–September closings that could influence the month-end print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$663K - $689K 38.8%
$636K - $663K 34.6%
$609K - $636K 6.1%
$555K - $582K 3.0%
$64,871 Vol.
$64,871 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$555K
6%
$555K - $582K
3%
$582K - $609K
1%
$609K - $636K
8%
$636K - $663K
35%
$663K - $689K
39%
$689K+
2%
$663K - $689K 38.8%
$636K - $663K 34.6%
$609K - $636K 6.1%
$555K - $582K 3.0%
$64,871 Vol.
$64,871 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$555K
$1,096 Vol.
6%
$555K - $582K
$2,516 Vol.
3%
$582K - $609K
$1,036 Vol.
1%
$609K - $636K
$8,914 Vol.
8%
$636K - $663K
$33,929 Vol.
35%
$663K - $689K
$9,103 Vol.
39%
$689K+
$8,278 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)Recent transaction data and listing trends position the $663K–$689K range as the leading outcome for New York City’s median home value on September 30, with trader consensus at 45.6% implied probability. Modest year-over-year gains of 3–5% through mid-2026, supported by tightening supply in key boroughs and resilient buyer demand, have kept values clustered near recent medians around $689K for listings and $850K–$907K for sales. Seasonal slowdowns in late summer, combined with elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory shifts, have tempered upside momentum while reducing the odds of sharper declines below $636K. Key catalysts ahead include any final August–September closings that could influence the month-end print.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$64,871End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)Recent transaction data and listing trends position the $663K–$689K range as the leading outcome for New York City’s median home value on September 30, with trader consensus at 45.6% implied probability. Modest year-over-year gains of 3–5% through mid-2026, supported by tightening supply in key boroughs and resilient buyer demand, have kept values clustered near recent medians around $689K for listings and $850K–$907K for sales. Seasonal slowdowns in late summer, combined with elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory shifts, have tempered upside momentum while reducing the odds of sharper declines below $636K. Key catalysts ahead include any final August–September closings that could influence the month-end print.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Volume
$64,871End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent transaction data and listing trends position the $663K–$689K range as the leading outcome for New York City’s median home value on September 30, with trader consensus at 45.6% implied probability. Modest year-over-year gains of 3–5% through mid-2026, supported by tightening supply in key boroughs and resilient buyer demand, have kept values clustered near recent medians around $689K for listings and $850K–$907K for sales. Seasonal slowdowns in late summer, combined with elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory shifts, have tempered upside momentum while reducing the odds of sharper declines below $636K. Key catalysts ahead include any final August–September closings that could influence the month-end print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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