Recent cooling in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro housing market, including rising inventory, more frequent price reductions, and slower condo sales amid persistently elevated mortgage rates, has positioned the $518K–$524K range as the leading outcome with 36.1% implied probability. Median listing prices in the District fell to $524,000 in August 2026 from $544,500 in July, while broader metro list prices hovered near $585,000 earlier in the summer with year-over-year declines. Zillow Home Value Index readings around $577,000 reflect modest softening, and trader consensus reflects these supply-demand shifts over the final weeks before September 30 resolution. High rates continue to constrain buyer activity, supporting the clustered probabilities between $512K and $536K.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
$518K - $524K 36.1%
$524K - $530K 20.6%
$530K - $536K 17.8%
$512K - $518K 16.3%
$53,206 Vol.
$53,206 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$512K
5%
$512K - $518K
16%
$518K - $524K
36%
$524K - $530K
21%
$530K - $536K
18%
$536K - $542K
12%
$542K+
3%
$518K - $524K 36.1%
$524K - $530K 20.6%
$530K - $536K 17.8%
$512K - $518K 16.3%
$53,206 Vol.
$53,206 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$512K
$1,220 Vol.
5%
$512K - $518K
$12,608 Vol.
16%
$518K - $524K
$15,100 Vol.
36%
$524K - $530K
$5,106 Vol.
21%
$530K - $536K
$5,590 Vol.
18%
$536K - $542K
$9,092 Vol.
12%
$542K+
$4,490 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)Recent cooling in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro housing market, including rising inventory, more frequent price reductions, and slower condo sales amid persistently elevated mortgage rates, has positioned the $518K–$524K range as the leading outcome with 36.1% implied probability. Median listing prices in the District fell to $524,000 in August 2026 from $544,500 in July, while broader metro list prices hovered near $585,000 earlier in the summer with year-over-year declines. Zillow Home Value Index readings around $577,000 reflect modest softening, and trader consensus reflects these supply-demand shifts over the final weeks before September 30 resolution. High rates continue to constrain buyer activity, supporting the clustered probabilities between $512K and $536K.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$53,206End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)Recent cooling in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro housing market, including rising inventory, more frequent price reductions, and slower condo sales amid persistently elevated mortgage rates, has positioned the $518K–$524K range as the leading outcome with 36.1% implied probability. Median listing prices in the District fell to $524,000 in August 2026 from $544,500 in July, while broader metro list prices hovered near $585,000 earlier in the summer with year-over-year declines. Zillow Home Value Index readings around $577,000 reflect modest softening, and trader consensus reflects these supply-demand shifts over the final weeks before September 30 resolution. High rates continue to constrain buyer activity, supporting the clustered probabilities between $512K and $536K.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
Volume
$53,206End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro housing market, including rising inventory, more frequent price reductions, and slower condo sales amid persistently elevated mortgage rates, has positioned the $518K–$524K range as the leading outcome with 36.1% implied probability. Median listing prices in the District fell to $524,000 in August 2026 from $544,500 in July, while broader metro list prices hovered near $585,000 earlier in the summer with year-over-year declines. Zillow Home Value Index readings around $577,000 reflect modest softening, and trader consensus reflects these supply-demand shifts over the final weeks before September 30 resolution. High rates continue to constrain buyer activity, supporting the clustered probabilities between $512K and $536K.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions