Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures alongside AI-linked goods costs, even as headline inflation showed mixed signals. With the August reading due September 30, trader positioning centers on modest cooling toward 3.1-3.2%, driven by softening energy pass-through, labor market moderation, and base effects from prior months. The tight spread among leading outcomes underscores uncertainty around monthly momentum, seasonal adjustments, and whether underlying disinflation has resumed after stalling above the Fed’s 2% target. Key upcoming influences include September employment data and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.2% 28%
3.1% 20%
3.3% 19%
3.4% 11%
$10,675 Vol.
$10,675 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤3.0%
10%
3.1%
20%
3.2%
28%
3.3%
19%
3.4%
11%
3.5%
6%
3.6%+
3%
3.2% 28%
3.1% 20%
3.3% 19%
3.4% 11%
$10,675 Vol.
$10,675 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤3.0%
$809 Vol.
10%
3.1%
$3,174 Vol.
20%
3.2%
$2,618 Vol.
28%
3.3%
$495 Vol.
19%
3.4%
$1,322 Vol.
11%
3.5%
$1,431 Vol.
6%
3.6%+
$825 Vol.
3%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures alongside AI-linked goods costs, even as headline inflation showed mixed signals. With the August reading due September 30, trader positioning centers on modest cooling toward 3.1-3.2%, driven by softening energy pass-through, labor market moderation, and base effects from prior months. The tight spread among leading outcomes underscores uncertainty around monthly momentum, seasonal adjustments, and whether underlying disinflation has resumed after stalling above the Fed’s 2% target. Key upcoming influences include September employment data and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied rate path.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Volume
$10,675End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures alongside AI-linked goods costs, even as headline inflation showed mixed signals. With the August reading due September 30, trader positioning centers on modest cooling toward 3.1-3.2%, driven by softening energy pass-through, labor market moderation, and base effects from prior months. The tight spread among leading outcomes underscores uncertainty around monthly momentum, seasonal adjustments, and whether underlying disinflation has resumed after stalling above the Fed’s 2% target. Key upcoming influences include September employment data and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied rate path.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$10,675End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures alongside AI-linked goods costs, even as headline inflation showed mixed signals. With the August reading due September 30, trader positioning centers on modest cooling toward 3.1-3.2%, driven by softening energy pass-through, labor market moderation, and base effects from prior months. The tight spread among leading outcomes underscores uncertainty around monthly momentum, seasonal adjustments, and whether underlying disinflation has resumed after stalling above the Fed’s 2% target. Key upcoming influences include September employment data and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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