Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, has anchored trader expectations for the 2026 annual rate within the 3.5–4.5% range that commands over 75% of market-implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, while non-core components benefited from energy subsidies and favorable base effects. Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% since June, citing persistent services pressures and external risks, with private forecasts centering end-2026 inflation around 4.0–4.2%. The closely contested 3.50–3.99% versus 4.00–4.49% bins reflect uncertainty over whether the recent cooling trajectory persists through year-end or yields to food-price and geopolitical rebounds, with the September CPI release serving as the next key input into aggregated trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 31.8%
4.00% to 4.49% 25%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.3%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$66,117 Vol.
$66,117 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
8%
2.50% to 2.99%
7%
3.00% to 3.49%
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
32%
4.00% to 4.49%
25%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
2%
3.50% to 3.99% 31.8%
4.00% to 4.49% 25%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.3%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$66,117 Vol.
$66,117 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,113 Vol.
8%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
7%
3.00% to 3.49%
$29,055 Vol.
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,203 Vol.
32%
4.00% to 4.49%
$13,149 Vol.
25%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,932 Vol.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,454 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,318 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, has anchored trader expectations for the 2026 annual rate within the 3.5–4.5% range that commands over 75% of market-implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, while non-core components benefited from energy subsidies and favorable base effects. Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% since June, citing persistent services pressures and external risks, with private forecasts centering end-2026 inflation around 4.0–4.2%. The closely contested 3.50–3.99% versus 4.00–4.49% bins reflect uncertainty over whether the recent cooling trajectory persists through year-end or yields to food-price and geopolitical rebounds, with the September CPI release serving as the next key input into aggregated trader sentiment.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$66,117End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, has anchored trader expectations for the 2026 annual rate within the 3.5–4.5% range that commands over 75% of market-implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, while non-core components benefited from energy subsidies and favorable base effects. Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% since June, citing persistent services pressures and external risks, with private forecasts centering end-2026 inflation around 4.0–4.2%. The closely contested 3.50–3.99% versus 4.00–4.49% bins reflect uncertainty over whether the recent cooling trajectory persists through year-end or yields to food-price and geopolitical rebounds, with the September CPI release serving as the next key input into aggregated trader sentiment.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$66,117End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June and 3.94% in May, has anchored trader expectations for the 2026 annual rate within the 3.5–4.5% range that commands over 75% of market-implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, while non-core components benefited from energy subsidies and favorable base effects. Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% since June, citing persistent services pressures and external risks, with private forecasts centering end-2026 inflation around 4.0–4.2%. The closely contested 3.50–3.99% versus 4.00–4.49% bins reflect uncertainty over whether the recent cooling trajectory persists through year-end or yields to food-price and geopolitical rebounds, with the September CPI release serving as the next key input into aggregated trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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