Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District underwent major redistricting in May 2026, expanding from a Memphis-based Democratic stronghold into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points in 2024. Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired after the map change, creating an open seat. In the August 6 primaries, Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor, backed by Trump, secured the nomination while Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson prevailed on his side. Nonpartisan forecasters now rate the district Solid or Safe Republican. The resulting partisan composition and open-seat dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Late developments such as turnout surges, candidate scandals, or national shifts could narrow the gap, though the current baseline leaves limited room for Democratic gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-09 House Election Winner
TN-09 House Election Winner
$41,984 Vol.
$41,984 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$41,984 Vol.
$41,984 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$23,883 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$18,101 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District underwent major redistricting in May 2026, expanding from a Memphis-based Democratic stronghold into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points in 2024. Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired after the map change, creating an open seat. In the August 6 primaries, Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor, backed by Trump, secured the nomination while Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson prevailed on his side. Nonpartisan forecasters now rate the district Solid or Safe Republican. The resulting partisan composition and open-seat dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Late developments such as turnout surges, candidate scandals, or national shifts could narrow the gap, though the current baseline leaves limited room for Democratic gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$41,984End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District underwent major redistricting in May 2026, expanding from a Memphis-based Democratic stronghold into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points in 2024. Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired after the map change, creating an open seat. In the August 6 primaries, Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor, backed by Trump, secured the nomination while Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson prevailed on his side. Nonpartisan forecasters now rate the district Solid or Safe Republican. The resulting partisan composition and open-seat dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Late developments such as turnout surges, candidate scandals, or national shifts could narrow the gap, though the current baseline leaves limited room for Democratic gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,984End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District underwent major redistricting in May 2026, expanding from a Memphis-based Democratic stronghold into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points in 2024. Longtime Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen retired after the map change, creating an open seat. In the August 6 primaries, Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor, backed by Trump, secured the nomination while Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson prevailed on his side. Nonpartisan forecasters now rate the district Solid or Safe Republican. The resulting partisan composition and open-seat dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Late developments such as turnout surges, candidate scandals, or national shifts could narrow the gap, though the current baseline leaves limited room for Democratic gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions