Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for Santa Catarina's two Senate seats, with Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, and Carol de Toni (PL) at 12% in combined vote intention, all within the margin of error. The October 4 election allows voters to select two candidates, creating fluid positioning where the second-place outcome hinges on how bolsonarista support splits between the two PL contenders and Amin's local appeal as the incumbent. Governor Jorginho Mello's (PL) endorsement of the PL ticket and Amin's emphasis on state roots have kept the three frontrunners closely bunched, with Décio Lima (PT) trailing further back. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, as no candidate has established a durable lead in the second slot amid high undecided shares and limited recent campaign developments. Further separation could emerge from new surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in PL internal dynamics before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 50%
Carol de Toni 24%
Esperidião Amin 21%
Décio Lima <1%
$39,073 Vol.
$39,073 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
50%
Carol de Toni
24%
Esperidião Amin
21%
Décio Lima
1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Carol
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 50%
Carol de Toni 24%
Esperidião Amin 21%
Décio Lima <1%
$39,073 Vol.
$39,073 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$11,824 Vol.
50%
Carol de Toni
$11,453 Vol.
24%
Esperidião Amin
$6,400 Vol.
21%
Décio Lima
$1,445 Vol.
1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$942 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$990 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$1,287 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$998 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$911 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$921 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$550 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$788 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$565 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for Santa Catarina's two Senate seats, with Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, and Carol de Toni (PL) at 12% in combined vote intention, all within the margin of error. The October 4 election allows voters to select two candidates, creating fluid positioning where the second-place outcome hinges on how bolsonarista support splits between the two PL contenders and Amin's local appeal as the incumbent. Governor Jorginho Mello's (PL) endorsement of the PL ticket and Amin's emphasis on state roots have kept the three frontrunners closely bunched, with Décio Lima (PT) trailing further back. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, as no candidate has established a durable lead in the second slot amid high undecided shares and limited recent campaign developments. Further separation could emerge from new surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in PL internal dynamics before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$39,073End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for Santa Catarina's two Senate seats, with Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, and Carol de Toni (PL) at 12% in combined vote intention, all within the margin of error. The October 4 election allows voters to select two candidates, creating fluid positioning where the second-place outcome hinges on how bolsonarista support splits between the two PL contenders and Amin's local appeal as the incumbent. Governor Jorginho Mello's (PL) endorsement of the PL ticket and Amin's emphasis on state roots have kept the three frontrunners closely bunched, with Décio Lima (PT) trailing further back. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, as no candidate has established a durable lead in the second slot amid high undecided shares and limited recent campaign developments. Further separation could emerge from new surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in PL internal dynamics before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$39,073End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for Santa Catarina's two Senate seats, with Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, and Carol de Toni (PL) at 12% in combined vote intention, all within the margin of error. The October 4 election allows voters to select two candidates, creating fluid positioning where the second-place outcome hinges on how bolsonarista support splits between the two PL contenders and Amin's local appeal as the incumbent. Governor Jorginho Mello's (PL) endorsement of the PL ticket and Amin's emphasis on state roots have kept the three frontrunners closely bunched, with Décio Lima (PT) trailing further back. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, as no candidate has established a durable lead in the second slot amid high undecided shares and limited recent campaign developments. Further separation could emerge from new surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in PL internal dynamics before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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