**Yabloko’s exclusion from the September 2026 State Duma ballot drives the near-certain “No” consensus.** On August 10, Russia’s Supreme Court upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and removed the liberal, anti-war party from the nationwide proportional-representation list after its initial Central Election Commission registration in late July; the appeal was dismissed, leaving no pathway for the party list to appear on ballots two weeks before voting. Yabloko has failed to reach the 5% threshold in every national election since 1999, typically polling 1–2% amid restricted media access and administrative hurdles. Even recent independent surveys showing temporary gains to 5–6% nationally (higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg) became irrelevant once the court ruling took effect. Single-mandate candidates remain in some districts, but the market resolves on the party list’s proportional share. Late reversal or election postponement are the only theoretically conceivable shifts, yet both face prohibitive legal and institutional barriers given the confirmed disqualification and fixed September 18–20 voting window. Trader pricing therefore reflects the straightforward outcome of an off-ballot party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
<1% chance
$432,934 Vol.
$432,934 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<1% chance
$432,934 Vol.
$432,934 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko’s exclusion from the September 2026 State Duma ballot drives the near-certain “No” consensus.** On August 10, Russia’s Supreme Court upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and removed the liberal, anti-war party from the nationwide proportional-representation list after its initial Central Election Commission registration in late July; the appeal was dismissed, leaving no pathway for the party list to appear on ballots two weeks before voting.
Yabloko has failed to reach the 5% threshold in every national election since 1999, typically polling 1–2% amid restricted media access and administrative hurdles. Even recent independent surveys showing temporary gains to 5–6% nationally (higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg) became irrelevant once the court ruling took effect. Single-mandate candidates remain in some districts, but the market resolves on the party list’s proportional share.
Late reversal or election postponement are the only theoretically conceivable shifts, yet both face prohibitive legal and institutional barriers given the confirmed disqualification and fixed September 18–20 voting window. Trader pricing therefore reflects the straightforward outcome of an off-ballot party.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$432,934End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko’s exclusion from the September 2026 State Duma ballot drives the near-certain “No” consensus.** On August 10, Russia’s Supreme Court upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and removed the liberal, anti-war party from the nationwide proportional-representation list after its initial Central Election Commission registration in late July; the appeal was dismissed, leaving no pathway for the party list to appear on ballots two weeks before voting.
Yabloko has failed to reach the 5% threshold in every national election since 1999, typically polling 1–2% amid restricted media access and administrative hurdles. Even recent independent surveys showing temporary gains to 5–6% nationally (higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg) became irrelevant once the court ruling took effect. Single-mandate candidates remain in some districts, but the market resolves on the party list’s proportional share.
Late reversal or election postponement are the only theoretically conceivable shifts, yet both face prohibitive legal and institutional barriers given the confirmed disqualification and fixed September 18–20 voting window. Trader pricing therefore reflects the straightforward outcome of an off-ballot party.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$432,934End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Yabloko’s exclusion from the September 2026 State Duma ballot drives the near-certain “No” consensus.** On August 10, Russia’s Supreme Court upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and removed the liberal, anti-war party from the nationwide proportional-representation list after its initial Central Election Commission registration in late July; the appeal was dismissed, leaving no pathway for the party list to appear on ballots two weeks before voting. Yabloko has failed to reach the 5% threshold in every national election since 1999, typically polling 1–2% amid restricted media access and administrative hurdles. Even recent independent surveys showing temporary gains to 5–6% nationally (higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg) became irrelevant once the court ruling took effect. Single-mandate candidates remain in some districts, but the market resolves on the party list’s proportional share. Late reversal or election postponement are the only theoretically conceivable shifts, yet both face prohibitive legal and institutional barriers given the confirmed disqualification and fixed September 18–20 voting window. Trader pricing therefore reflects the straightforward outcome of an off-ballot party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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