**Chou Chun-mi holds an 87% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Pingtung County Magistrate race, with Su Ching-chuan at 12.5%.** The contest is a rematch of the narrow 2022 race, where incumbent DPP Magistrate Chou defeated KMT challenger Su by roughly 11,000 votes in a county that has favored the DPP for nearly three decades. Traders appear to weigh Chou’s incumbency advantages, including recent tech-sector investments and established local networks, more heavily than Su’s renewed campaign on healthcare subsidies and infrastructure critiques. Su’s June 2026 indictment over building violations tied to a 2024 hospital fire that killed nine people has further constrained his prospects, even as he remains the KMT nominee following candidate registration that closed in early September. Flooding from recent heavy rains has introduced some local volatility, yet the county’s partisan baseline and absence of viable third-party entrants continue to anchor the market consensus around a Chou victory on November 28.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Chou Chun-mi
87%
Su Ching-chuan
13%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Chou Chun-mi
$1,815 Vol.
87%
Su Ching-chuan
$1,676 Vol.
13%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Chou Chun-mi holds an 87% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Pingtung County Magistrate race, with Su Ching-chuan at 12.5%.**
The contest is a rematch of the narrow 2022 race, where incumbent DPP Magistrate Chou defeated KMT challenger Su by roughly 11,000 votes in a county that has favored the DPP for nearly three decades. Traders appear to weigh Chou’s incumbency advantages, including recent tech-sector investments and established local networks, more heavily than Su’s renewed campaign on healthcare subsidies and infrastructure critiques. Su’s June 2026 indictment over building violations tied to a 2024 hospital fire that killed nine people has further constrained his prospects, even as he remains the KMT nominee following candidate registration that closed in early September. Flooding from recent heavy rains has introduced some local volatility, yet the county’s partisan baseline and absence of viable third-party entrants continue to anchor the market consensus around a Chou victory on November 28.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 9:01 AM ET
Volume
$3,490End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Chou Chun-mi holds an 87% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Pingtung County Magistrate race, with Su Ching-chuan at 12.5%.**
The contest is a rematch of the narrow 2022 race, where incumbent DPP Magistrate Chou defeated KMT challenger Su by roughly 11,000 votes in a county that has favored the DPP for nearly three decades. Traders appear to weigh Chou’s incumbency advantages, including recent tech-sector investments and established local networks, more heavily than Su’s renewed campaign on healthcare subsidies and infrastructure critiques. Su’s June 2026 indictment over building violations tied to a 2024 hospital fire that killed nine people has further constrained his prospects, even as he remains the KMT nominee following candidate registration that closed in early September. Flooding from recent heavy rains has introduced some local volatility, yet the county’s partisan baseline and absence of viable third-party entrants continue to anchor the market consensus around a Chou victory on November 28.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Pingtung County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$3,490End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Chou Chun-mi holds an 87% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Pingtung County Magistrate race, with Su Ching-chuan at 12.5%.** The contest is a rematch of the narrow 2022 race, where incumbent DPP Magistrate Chou defeated KMT challenger Su by roughly 11,000 votes in a county that has favored the DPP for nearly three decades. Traders appear to weigh Chou’s incumbency advantages, including recent tech-sector investments and established local networks, more heavily than Su’s renewed campaign on healthcare subsidies and infrastructure critiques. Su’s June 2026 indictment over building violations tied to a 2024 hospital fire that killed nine people has further constrained his prospects, even as he remains the KMT nominee following candidate registration that closed in early September. Flooding from recent heavy rains has introduced some local volatility, yet the county’s partisan baseline and absence of viable third-party entrants continue to anchor the market consensus around a Chou victory on November 28.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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