Recent polling during the early October 5, 2026, campaign shows the PLQ holding steady near 20-22% support, behind the PQ and now-trailing CAQ, with notable erosion in francophone areas outside Montreal. Regional patterns concentrate Liberal strength in the Montreal area while other parties compete tightly elsewhere, producing wide seat-projection ranges that often place the PLQ in the mid-to-high 20s or low-to-mid 30s. Vote fragmentation among multiple parties, combined with high numbers of undecided voters and competitive ridings, sustains uncertainty across adjacent seat bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or regional swings could readily move outcomes between the leading probability clusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated28-31 27%
<28 23%
32-35 22%
36-39 8%
$14,293 Vol.
$14,293 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<28
23%
28-31
27%
32-35
22%
36-39
8%
40-43
4%
44+
5%
28-31 27%
<28 23%
32-35 22%
36-39 8%
$14,293 Vol.
$14,293 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<28
$3,120 Vol.
23%
28-31
$3,705 Vol.
27%
32-35
$1,646 Vol.
22%
36-39
$3,888 Vol.
8%
40-43
$1,044 Vol.
4%
44+
$889 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling during the early October 5, 2026, campaign shows the PLQ holding steady near 20-22% support, behind the PQ and now-trailing CAQ, with notable erosion in francophone areas outside Montreal. Regional patterns concentrate Liberal strength in the Montreal area while other parties compete tightly elsewhere, producing wide seat-projection ranges that often place the PLQ in the mid-to-high 20s or low-to-mid 30s. Vote fragmentation among multiple parties, combined with high numbers of undecided voters and competitive ridings, sustains uncertainty across adjacent seat bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or regional swings could readily move outcomes between the leading probability clusters.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$14,293End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling during the early October 5, 2026, campaign shows the PLQ holding steady near 20-22% support, behind the PQ and now-trailing CAQ, with notable erosion in francophone areas outside Montreal. Regional patterns concentrate Liberal strength in the Montreal area while other parties compete tightly elsewhere, producing wide seat-projection ranges that often place the PLQ in the mid-to-high 20s or low-to-mid 30s. Vote fragmentation among multiple parties, combined with high numbers of undecided voters and competitive ridings, sustains uncertainty across adjacent seat bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or regional swings could readily move outcomes between the leading probability clusters.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$14,293End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling during the early October 5, 2026, campaign shows the PLQ holding steady near 20-22% support, behind the PQ and now-trailing CAQ, with notable erosion in francophone areas outside Montreal. Regional patterns concentrate Liberal strength in the Montreal area while other parties compete tightly elsewhere, producing wide seat-projection ranges that often place the PLQ in the mid-to-high 20s or low-to-mid 30s. Vote fragmentation among multiple parties, combined with high numbers of undecided voters and competitive ridings, sustains uncertainty across adjacent seat bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or regional swings could readily move outcomes between the leading probability clusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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