The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent recent voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Timothy M. Kennedy secured the nomination without primary opposition after advancing unopposed in June 2026, building on his 65 percent-plus margin from 2024, while Republican Dennis Hannon also faced no contested primary. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. Factors that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an extreme national partisan shift, though such developments have not materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$26,636 Vol.
$26,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$26,636 Vol.
$26,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,443 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,193 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent recent voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Timothy M. Kennedy secured the nomination without primary opposition after advancing unopposed in June 2026, building on his 65 percent-plus margin from 2024, while Republican Dennis Hannon also faced no contested primary. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. Factors that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an extreme national partisan shift, though such developments have not materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$26,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent recent voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Timothy M. Kennedy secured the nomination without primary opposition after advancing unopposed in June 2026, building on his 65 percent-plus margin from 2024, while Republican Dennis Hannon also faced no contested primary. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. Factors that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an extreme national partisan shift, though such developments have not materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent recent voting patterns, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Timothy M. Kennedy secured the nomination without primary opposition after advancing unopposed in June 2026, building on his 65 percent-plus margin from 2024, while Republican Dennis Hannon also faced no contested primary. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. Factors that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an extreme national partisan shift, though such developments have not materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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