Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024, secured an uncontested primary, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $967,000 cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman’s roughly $17,000. These structural advantages have shaped trader consensus around the Republican outcome. A significant national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting Tenney, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the Lake Ontario and Finger Lakes region could narrow the margin or alter the result before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-24 House Election Winner
NY-24 House Election Winner
$20,538 Vol.
$20,538 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$20,538 Vol.
$20,538 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$10,918 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,620 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024, secured an uncontested primary, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $967,000 cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman’s roughly $17,000. These structural advantages have shaped trader consensus around the Republican outcome. A significant national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting Tenney, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the Lake Ontario and Finger Lakes region could narrow the margin or alter the result before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$20,538End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024, secured an uncontested primary, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $967,000 cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman’s roughly $17,000. These structural advantages have shaped trader consensus around the Republican outcome. A significant national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting Tenney, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the Lake Ontario and Finger Lakes region could narrow the margin or alter the result before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,538End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection by more than 30 points in 2024, secured an uncontested primary, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $967,000 cash on hand compared to Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman’s roughly $17,000. These structural advantages have shaped trader consensus around the Republican outcome. A significant national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting Tenney, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the Lake Ontario and Finger Lakes region could narrow the margin or alter the result before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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