Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured the nomination in the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Virginia McIntyre in the November general election for New York’s 25th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat Solid Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Morelle’s prior reelection margins. The current trader consensus aligns with this baseline, pricing in the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and district composition over the Republican challenger. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-25 House Election Winner
NY-25 House Election Winner
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$22,758 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$10,354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured the nomination in the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Virginia McIntyre in the November general election for New York’s 25th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat Solid Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Morelle’s prior reelection margins. The current trader consensus aligns with this baseline, pricing in the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and district composition over the Republican challenger. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,113End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured the nomination in the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Virginia McIntyre in the November general election for New York’s 25th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat Solid Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Morelle’s prior reelection margins. The current trader consensus aligns with this baseline, pricing in the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and district composition over the Republican challenger. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,113End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured the nomination in the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Virginia McIntyre in the November general election for New York’s 25th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat Solid Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Morelle’s prior reelection margins. The current trader consensus aligns with this baseline, pricing in the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and district composition over the Republican challenger. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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