Scott Wiener leads the market for California's 11th Congressional District seat at 59.5% implied probability, ahead of Connie Chan at 41%, following the June 2026 top-two primary where Wiener captured 40.7% and Chan 29.7% to advance to the November 3 general election. Wiener's stronger showing across diverse San Francisco precincts, including support from real estate interests and housing advocates, has shaped trader positioning in a solidly Democratic district vacated by Nancy Pelosi. Key dynamics include contrasts on housing policy, with Wiener favoring expanded development and Chan emphasizing progressive priorities, alongside endorsements and independent spending patterns. The race remains competitive pending voter turnout and any late shifts in campaign momentum before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,602 Vol.
$13,602 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
60%
Connie Chan
41%
$13,602 Vol.
$13,602 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
$3,105 Vol.
60%
Connie Chan
$10,497 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads the market for California's 11th Congressional District seat at 59.5% implied probability, ahead of Connie Chan at 41%, following the June 2026 top-two primary where Wiener captured 40.7% and Chan 29.7% to advance to the November 3 general election. Wiener's stronger showing across diverse San Francisco precincts, including support from real estate interests and housing advocates, has shaped trader positioning in a solidly Democratic district vacated by Nancy Pelosi. Key dynamics include contrasts on housing policy, with Wiener favoring expanded development and Chan emphasizing progressive priorities, alongside endorsements and independent spending patterns. The race remains competitive pending voter turnout and any late shifts in campaign momentum before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Volume
$13,602End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads the market for California's 11th Congressional District seat at 59.5% implied probability, ahead of Connie Chan at 41%, following the June 2026 top-two primary where Wiener captured 40.7% and Chan 29.7% to advance to the November 3 general election. Wiener's stronger showing across diverse San Francisco precincts, including support from real estate interests and housing advocates, has shaped trader positioning in a solidly Democratic district vacated by Nancy Pelosi. Key dynamics include contrasts on housing policy, with Wiener favoring expanded development and Chan emphasizing progressive priorities, alongside endorsements and independent spending patterns. The race remains competitive pending voter turnout and any late shifts in campaign momentum before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,602End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Scott Wiener leads the market for California's 11th Congressional District seat at 59.5% implied probability, ahead of Connie Chan at 41%, following the June 2026 top-two primary where Wiener captured 40.7% and Chan 29.7% to advance to the November 3 general election. Wiener's stronger showing across diverse San Francisco precincts, including support from real estate interests and housing advocates, has shaped trader positioning in a solidly Democratic district vacated by Nancy Pelosi. Key dynamics include contrasts on housing policy, with Wiener favoring expanded development and Chan emphasizing progressive priorities, alongside endorsements and independent spending patterns. The race remains competitive pending voter turnout and any late shifts in campaign momentum before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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