Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with its strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins. Smith’s long tenure since 1997, substantial fundraising lead, and comfortable primary performance against challengers including independent Kshama Sawant have reinforced expectations of continued Democratic control. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with these structural factors and recent election data. A realistic shift would require major national political changes, significant candidate developments, or unexpected late events before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-09 House Election Winner
WA-09 House Election Winner
$50,907 Vol.
$50,907 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
1%
$50,907 Vol.
$50,907 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,595 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$39,312 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with its strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins. Smith’s long tenure since 1997, substantial fundraising lead, and comfortable primary performance against challengers including independent Kshama Sawant have reinforced expectations of continued Democratic control. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with these structural factors and recent election data. A realistic shift would require major national political changes, significant candidate developments, or unexpected late events before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$50,907End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with its strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins. Smith’s long tenure since 1997, substantial fundraising lead, and comfortable primary performance against challengers including independent Kshama Sawant have reinforced expectations of continued Democratic control. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with these structural factors and recent election data. A realistic shift would require major national political changes, significant candidate developments, or unexpected late events before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,907End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with its strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins. Smith’s long tenure since 1997, substantial fundraising lead, and comfortable primary performance against challengers including independent Kshama Sawant have reinforced expectations of continued Democratic control. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with these structural factors and recent election data. A realistic shift would require major national political changes, significant candidate developments, or unexpected late events before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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