Aisha Wahab leads the CA-14 House election market at 83.5% implied probability after securing the Democratic nomination and winning the August 2026 special election to fill the remainder of Eric Swalwell’s term. In the June 2026 top-two primaries, Wahab captured roughly 38-43% while advancing alongside Melissa Hernandez, who received 17%. Wahab then prevailed in the August 18 special general with 53.1% to Hernandez’s 46.9%, despite heavy independent expenditures supporting her opponent. As the sitting representative sworn in early September, Wahab benefits from incumbency advantages and the district’s strong Democratic lean in the November 3 general election. Hernandez retains a path through continued outside funding and turnout efforts, though her position trails at 15.3%. The November contest features the same two finalists from the primaries.