Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95 percent. Warner, seeking a fourth term after winning his last contest by nearly 15 points, faces Republican Bert Mizusawa following the August primaries. Recent polling from June shows Warner ahead by 17 to 25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia’s Democratic lean in recent cycles and the incumbent’s moderate profile and constituent service record. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national political shift, unexpected scandal, or sharp change in turnout patterns among suburban or rural voters could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$17,913 Vol.
$17,913 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
5%
$17,913 Vol.
$17,913 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$11,171 Vol.
95%
Republican
$6,742 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95 percent. Warner, seeking a fourth term after winning his last contest by nearly 15 points, faces Republican Bert Mizusawa following the August primaries. Recent polling from June shows Warner ahead by 17 to 25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia’s Democratic lean in recent cycles and the incumbent’s moderate profile and constituent service record. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national political shift, unexpected scandal, or sharp change in turnout patterns among suburban or rural voters could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$17,913End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95 percent. Warner, seeking a fourth term after winning his last contest by nearly 15 points, faces Republican Bert Mizusawa following the August primaries. Recent polling from June shows Warner ahead by 17 to 25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia’s Democratic lean in recent cycles and the incumbent’s moderate profile and constituent service record. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national political shift, unexpected scandal, or sharp change in turnout patterns among suburban or rural voters could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$17,913End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95 percent. Warner, seeking a fourth term after winning his last contest by nearly 15 points, faces Republican Bert Mizusawa following the August primaries. Recent polling from June shows Warner ahead by 17 to 25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia’s Democratic lean in recent cycles and the incumbent’s moderate profile and constituent service record. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national political shift, unexpected scandal, or sharp change in turnout patterns among suburban or rural voters could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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