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icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

Netanyahu - Israel PM 40%

None before 2027 37%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 4.8%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 4.1%

Polymarket

$264,901 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM 40%

None before 2027 37%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 4.8%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 4.1%

Polymarket

$264,901 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$29,096 Vol.

40%

None before 2027

$87,922 Vol.

37%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$12,360 Vol.

5%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,188 Vol.

4%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$7,405 Vol.

3%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$6,649 Vol.

2%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,105 Vol.

2%

Macron - France President

$9,989 Vol.

2%

Trump - USA President

$5,243 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$6,523 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$9,114 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$7,327 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$6,377 Vol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$5,676 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$5,436 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$6,835 Vol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$4,953 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$6,530 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$7,918 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$4,632 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$6,737 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$6,885 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu leads this market at 39.5 percent because Israel’s October 27 parliamentary elections create a near-term exit window before 2027, with his coalition trailing in polls amid ongoing corruption proceedings, coalition fragility, and security debates. The tight 36.5 percent price on “none before 2027” reflects traders’ assessment that Netanyahu could still secure re-election or that other listed leaders face higher institutional barriers to rapid removal. Sánchez contends with Spanish corruption investigations that have eroded coalition support but lack an immediate electoral trigger. Zelenskyy, Erdoğan, Macron, and others register lower probabilities tied to fixed terms, wartime stability, or limited near-term political pressure. Separation in the market would likely require either an Israeli government collapse before year-end or clear confirmation that Netanyahu retains power into 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$264,901
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu leads this market at 39.5 percent because Israel’s October 27 parliamentary elections create a near-term exit window before 2027, with his coalition trailing in polls amid ongoing corruption proceedings, coalition fragility, and security debates. The tight 36.5 percent price on “none before 2027” reflects traders’ assessment that Netanyahu could still secure re-election or that other listed leaders face higher institutional barriers to rapid removal. Sánchez contends with Spanish corruption investigations that have eroded coalition support but lack an immediate electoral trigger. Zelenskyy, Erdoğan, Macron, and others register lower probabilities tied to fixed terms, wartime stability, or limited near-term political pressure. Separation in the market would likely require either an Israeli government collapse before year-end or clear confirmation that Netanyahu retains power into 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$264,901
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 40%, followed by "None before 2027" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" has generated $264.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "None before 2027" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.