Minnesota’s 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.7 percent in the August 2026 primary and faces Republican Paul Wikstrom in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established fundraising and organizational edge. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or structural changes. A late national Republican surge, unanticipated scandal, or withdrawal could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s baseline and limited Republican infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$24,286 Vol.
$24,286 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$24,286 Vol.
$24,286 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,052 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$20,235 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota’s 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.7 percent in the August 2026 primary and faces Republican Paul Wikstrom in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established fundraising and organizational edge. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or structural changes. A late national Republican surge, unanticipated scandal, or withdrawal could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s baseline and limited Republican infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,286End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota’s 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.7 percent in the August 2026 primary and faces Republican Paul Wikstrom in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established fundraising and organizational edge. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or structural changes. A late national Republican surge, unanticipated scandal, or withdrawal could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s baseline and limited Republican infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,286End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota’s 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.7 percent in the August 2026 primary and faces Republican Paul Wikstrom in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established fundraising and organizational edge. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or structural changes. A late national Republican surge, unanticipated scandal, or withdrawal could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s baseline and limited Republican infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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