Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district's D+11 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic reflect structural advantages that underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Morrison secured her party's nomination without opposition after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass emerged from a narrow August primary. Forecasters highlight the affluent suburban electorate's alignment with Democratic candidates on key issues, limiting Republican opportunities. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually strong turnout patterns remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-03 House Election Winner
MN-03 House Election Winner
$21,966 Vol.
$21,966 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$21,966 Vol.
$21,966 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,428 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$9,538 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district's D+11 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic reflect structural advantages that underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Morrison secured her party's nomination without opposition after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass emerged from a narrow August primary. Forecasters highlight the affluent suburban electorate's alignment with Democratic candidates on key issues, limiting Republican opportunities. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually strong turnout patterns remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$21,966End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district's D+11 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic reflect structural advantages that underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Morrison secured her party's nomination without opposition after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass emerged from a narrow August primary. Forecasters highlight the affluent suburban electorate's alignment with Democratic candidates on key issues, limiting Republican opportunities. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually strong turnout patterns remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,966End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district's D+11 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic reflect structural advantages that underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Morrison secured her party's nomination without opposition after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass emerged from a narrow August primary. Forecasters highlight the affluent suburban electorate's alignment with Democratic candidates on key issues, limiting Republican opportunities. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually strong turnout patterns remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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