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icon for Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Brazil

Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Brazil

Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place

Roseana Sarney 72%

Lahesio Bonfim 11.1%

Weverton Rocha 7.1%

Fufuca 6.8%

Polymarket

$24,767 Vol.

Roseana Sarney 72%

Lahesio Bonfim 11.1%

Weverton Rocha 7.1%

Fufuca 6.8%

Polymarket

$24,767 Vol.

icon for Roseana Sarney

Roseana Sarney

$15,667 Vol.

72%

icon for Lahesio Bonfim

Lahesio Bonfim

$3,723 Vol.

11%

icon for Weverton Rocha

Weverton Rocha

$2,232 Vol.

7%

icon for Fufuca

Fufuca

$507 Vol.

7%

icon for Raimundo Moreira

Raimundo Moreira

$412 Vol.

1%

icon for Wilson Leite

Wilson Leite

$389 Vol.

1%

icon for Dr. Hilton Gonçalo

Dr. Hilton Gonçalo

$391 Vol.

1%

icon for Eliziane Gama

Eliziane Gama

$394 Vol.

<1%

icon for Simplício Araújo

Simplício Araújo

$366 Vol.

<1%

icon for Cidônio Gonçalves

Cidônio Gonçalves

$405 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enilton Rodrigues

Enilton Rodrigues

$281 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Roseana Sarney (MDB) holds a clear lead in trader consensus for first place at 71.5%, reflecting her consistent polling advantage and strong name recognition ahead of the October 4, 2026, election for Maranhão’s two Senate seats.** Recent Quaest and other August surveys place her at 16–22% in stimulated scenarios (first and second votes combined), ahead of Weverton Rocha (PDT, seeking re-election) at 11–13%, Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO) at 10–14%, André Fufuca (PP) at 9–11%, and Eliziane Gama (PT) at 9%. High undecided shares (often 27% or more) and the two-vote system keep the race fluid, but Sarney’s edge has widened since mid-year polls where several names clustered within the margin of error. Key factors include her four prior terms as governor, prior Senate service, and alignment with the state government’s MDB-led group; she formally launched her candidacy in July after recovering from cancer treatment. Lower-priced contenders such as Lahesio Bonfim (11.1%), Fufuca (6.8%), and Weverton Rocha (6.8%) trail due to narrower polling support and less consolidated coalitions, while fringe candidates remain below 1%. The October timeline and ongoing campaign events could still shift relative positions among the top tier before votes are cast.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,767
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Roseana Sarney (MDB) holds a clear lead in trader consensus for first place at 71.5%, reflecting her consistent polling advantage and strong name recognition ahead of the October 4, 2026, election for Maranhão’s two Senate seats.** Recent Quaest and other August surveys place her at 16–22% in stimulated scenarios (first and second votes combined), ahead of Weverton Rocha (PDT, seeking re-election) at 11–13%, Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO) at 10–14%, André Fufuca (PP) at 9–11%, and Eliziane Gama (PT) at 9%. High undecided shares (often 27% or more) and the two-vote system keep the race fluid, but Sarney’s edge has widened since mid-year polls where several names clustered within the margin of error. Key factors include her four prior terms as governor, prior Senate service, and alignment with the state government’s MDB-led group; she formally launched her candidacy in July after recovering from cancer treatment. Lower-priced contenders such as Lahesio Bonfim (11.1%), Fufuca (6.8%), and Weverton Rocha (6.8%) trail due to narrower polling support and less consolidated coalitions, while fringe candidates remain below 1%. The October timeline and ongoing campaign events could still shift relative positions among the top tier before votes are cast.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,767
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Roseana Sarney" at 72%, followed by "Lahesio Bonfim" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $24.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Roseana Sarney" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lahesio Bonfim" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.