**Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate the overnight low in Tel Aviv on September 5 will hold near 25°C under stable high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market's 92.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C as the daily minimum. Late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with sea surface temperatures near 28°C and minimal diurnal cooling, support these readings, consistent with recent observational trends showing overnight temperatures rarely falling below the mid-20s this week. Historical September averages near 21–22°C are exceeded due to the persistent warm pattern. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a late wind shift promoting greater radiative cooling, though latest model consensus shows low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 5?
25°C 99%
24°C 6%
21°C 4.0%
20°C or below <1%
$1,241 Vol.
$1,241 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 99%
24°C 6%
21°C 4.0%
20°C or below <1%
$1,241 Vol.
$1,241 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
$67 Vol.
No
21°C
$103 Vol.
No
22°C
$170 Vol.
No
23°C
$164 Vol.
No
24°C
$114 Vol.
No
25°C
$513 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$20 Vol.
No
27°C
$30 Vol.
No
28°C
$20 Vol.
No
29°C
$20 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate the overnight low in Tel Aviv on September 5 will hold near 25°C under stable high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market's 92.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C as the daily minimum. Late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with sea surface temperatures near 28°C and minimal diurnal cooling, support these readings, consistent with recent observational trends showing overnight temperatures rarely falling below the mid-20s this week. Historical September averages near 21–22°C are exceeded due to the persistent warm pattern. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a late wind shift promoting greater radiative cooling, though latest model consensus shows low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,241End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate the overnight low in Tel Aviv on September 5 will hold near 25°C under stable high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market's 92.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C as the daily minimum. Late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with sea surface temperatures near 28°C and minimal diurnal cooling, support these readings, consistent with recent observational trends showing overnight temperatures rarely falling below the mid-20s this week. Historical September averages near 21–22°C are exceeded due to the persistent warm pattern. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a late wind shift promoting greater radiative cooling, though latest model consensus shows low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,241End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate the overnight low in Tel Aviv on September 5 will hold near 25°C under stable high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market's 92.5% implied probability for exactly 25°C as the daily minimum. Late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with sea surface temperatures near 28°C and minimal diurnal cooling, support these readings, consistent with recent observational trends showing overnight temperatures rarely falling below the mid-20s this week. Historical September averages near 21–22°C are exceeded due to the persistent warm pattern. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a late wind shift promoting greater radiative cooling, though latest model consensus shows low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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