Recent forecasts from DWD-MOS and other models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 7 will hinge on overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with early-morning readings potentially dipping to 12–15 °C. This setup favors values near the 8–10 °C cluster that currently leads market-implied odds, as reduced cloud cover and calm conditions enhance heat loss compared with the 1991–2020 average low of 11.3 °C. Minor differences in predicted humidity, wind speed, and any late-evening cloud intrusions create the tight spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes, while warmer or cooler extremes remain less likely given stable high pressure and limited model divergence. Updated runs from the German Weather Service tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 7?
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
14°C 36%
9°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
7°C or below
24%
8°C
26%
9°C
28%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
23%
13°C
15%
14°C
36%
15°C
8%
16°C
3%
17°C or higher
3%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
14°C 36%
9°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
7°C or below
$325 Vol.
24%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
28%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
36%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from DWD-MOS and other models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 7 will hinge on overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with early-morning readings potentially dipping to 12–15 °C. This setup favors values near the 8–10 °C cluster that currently leads market-implied odds, as reduced cloud cover and calm conditions enhance heat loss compared with the 1991–2020 average low of 11.3 °C. Minor differences in predicted humidity, wind speed, and any late-evening cloud intrusions create the tight spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes, while warmer or cooler extremes remain less likely given stable high pressure and limited model divergence. Updated runs from the German Weather Service tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$325End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from DWD-MOS and other models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 7 will hinge on overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with early-morning readings potentially dipping to 12–15 °C. This setup favors values near the 8–10 °C cluster that currently leads market-implied odds, as reduced cloud cover and calm conditions enhance heat loss compared with the 1991–2020 average low of 11.3 °C. Minor differences in predicted humidity, wind speed, and any late-evening cloud intrusions create the tight spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes, while warmer or cooler extremes remain less likely given stable high pressure and limited model divergence. Updated runs from the German Weather Service tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$325End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from DWD-MOS and other models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 7 will hinge on overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with early-morning readings potentially dipping to 12–15 °C. This setup favors values near the 8–10 °C cluster that currently leads market-implied odds, as reduced cloud cover and calm conditions enhance heat loss compared with the 1991–2020 average low of 11.3 °C. Minor differences in predicted humidity, wind speed, and any late-evening cloud intrusions create the tight spread among 8 °C, 9 °C, and 10 °C outcomes, while warmer or cooler extremes remain less likely given stable high pressure and limited model divergence. Updated runs from the German Weather Service tonight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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