Current forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and local models show clear skies and light northeast winds overnight into September 6, supporting radiative cooling with dew points near 9–10°C that should limit the minimum to around 11–12°C in Munich. Ensemble spreads and historical September 6 lows (averaging 11.4°C but ranging from 2.7°C to 16.5°C in recent decades) create genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds near 10–11°C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds clustered at 8–11°C. New model runs and early-morning observations will refine the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 6?
8°C 29%
9°C 27%
10°C 27%
11°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
5°C or below
7%
6°C
9%
7°C
14%
8°C
29%
9°C
27%
10°C
27%
11°C
26%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
8°C 29%
9°C 27%
10°C 27%
11°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
7%
6°C
$416 Vol.
9%
7°C
$313 Vol.
14%
8°C
$0 Vol.
29%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and local models show clear skies and light northeast winds overnight into September 6, supporting radiative cooling with dew points near 9–10°C that should limit the minimum to around 11–12°C in Munich. Ensemble spreads and historical September 6 lows (averaging 11.4°C but ranging from 2.7°C to 16.5°C in recent decades) create genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds near 10–11°C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds clustered at 8–11°C. New model runs and early-morning observations will refine the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$849End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and local models show clear skies and light northeast winds overnight into September 6, supporting radiative cooling with dew points near 9–10°C that should limit the minimum to around 11–12°C in Munich. Ensemble spreads and historical September 6 lows (averaging 11.4°C but ranging from 2.7°C to 16.5°C in recent decades) create genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds near 10–11°C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds clustered at 8–11°C. New model runs and early-morning observations will refine the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$849End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and local models show clear skies and light northeast winds overnight into September 6, supporting radiative cooling with dew points near 9–10°C that should limit the minimum to around 11–12°C in Munich. Ensemble spreads and historical September 6 lows (averaging 11.4°C but ranging from 2.7°C to 16.5°C in recent decades) create genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds near 10–11°C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds clustered at 8–11°C. New model runs and early-morning observations will refine the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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