**Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus indicate that Munich's overnight minimum on September 5, 2026, is most likely to settle between 13–14°C.** The day featured light morning rain followed by partial clearing and moderate westerly winds, which limited daytime heating while allowing radiational cooling under increasingly clear skies after sunset. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near the historical September average of ~11.6°C but tempered by residual moisture and light winds that reduce the rate of surface heat loss. The near-even split between 13°C and 14°C market-implied odds reflects genuine uncertainty in the final minimum. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of cloud dissipation, sustained wind speeds above 5 km/h that mix warmer air downward, and slight variations in dew-point depression across high-resolution models. Clearer, calmer conditions favor the lower end near 13°C, while lingering cloud or a breeze pushes readings toward 14°C. With resolution imminent, updated observational data from the official Munich station will determine the exact value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 5?
13°C 99%
12°C 5%
11°C or below 2%
15°C <1%
$948 Vol.
$948 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
11°C or below
2%
12°C
5%
13°C
99%
14°C
-
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99%
12°C 5%
11°C or below 2%
15°C <1%
$948 Vol.
$948 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
11°C or below
$32 Vol.
2%
12°C
$32 Vol.
5%
13°C
$37 Vol.
99%
14°C
$13 Vol.
-
15°C
$189 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$389 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$76 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$69 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus indicate that Munich's overnight minimum on September 5, 2026, is most likely to settle between 13–14°C.** The day featured light morning rain followed by partial clearing and moderate westerly winds, which limited daytime heating while allowing radiational cooling under increasingly clear skies after sunset. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near the historical September average of ~11.6°C but tempered by residual moisture and light winds that reduce the rate of surface heat loss.
The near-even split between 13°C and 14°C market-implied odds reflects genuine uncertainty in the final minimum. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of cloud dissipation, sustained wind speeds above 5 km/h that mix warmer air downward, and slight variations in dew-point depression across high-resolution models. Clearer, calmer conditions favor the lower end near 13°C, while lingering cloud or a breeze pushes readings toward 14°C. With resolution imminent, updated observational data from the official Munich station will determine the exact value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$948End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus indicate that Munich's overnight minimum on September 5, 2026, is most likely to settle between 13–14°C.** The day featured light morning rain followed by partial clearing and moderate westerly winds, which limited daytime heating while allowing radiational cooling under increasingly clear skies after sunset. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near the historical September average of ~11.6°C but tempered by residual moisture and light winds that reduce the rate of surface heat loss.
The near-even split between 13°C and 14°C market-implied odds reflects genuine uncertainty in the final minimum. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of cloud dissipation, sustained wind speeds above 5 km/h that mix warmer air downward, and slight variations in dew-point depression across high-resolution models. Clearer, calmer conditions favor the lower end near 13°C, while lingering cloud or a breeze pushes readings toward 14°C. With resolution imminent, updated observational data from the official Munich station will determine the exact value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$948End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus indicate that Munich's overnight minimum on September 5, 2026, is most likely to settle between 13–14°C.** The day featured light morning rain followed by partial clearing and moderate westerly winds, which limited daytime heating while allowing radiational cooling under increasingly clear skies after sunset. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near the historical September average of ~11.6°C but tempered by residual moisture and light winds that reduce the rate of surface heat loss. The near-even split between 13°C and 14°C market-implied odds reflects genuine uncertainty in the final minimum. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of cloud dissipation, sustained wind speeds above 5 km/h that mix warmer air downward, and slight variations in dew-point depression across high-resolution models. Clearer, calmer conditions favor the lower end near 13°C, while lingering cloud or a breeze pushes readings toward 14°C. With resolution imminent, updated observational data from the official Munich station will determine the exact value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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