Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate Moscow’s overnight minimum on September 5 will settle near 13°C amid a mild southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light rain that limit radiational cooling. Current observations show evening temperatures holding at 14–17°C with dew points near 11–12°C, consistent with the market-implied 90% probability for a 13°C low. This setup contrasts with the climatological average low of roughly 10°C, reflecting a warmer-than-normal early-September air mass. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and absence of a stronger cold advection signal, leaving only modest implied odds for outcomes at or below 12°C. Updated NWP runs and final station readings will determine exact resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 5?
13°C 99%
9°C or below 20%
10°C 20%
11°C 20%
$374 Vol.
$374 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
13°C 99%
9°C or below 20%
10°C 20%
11°C 20%
$374 Vol.
$374 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
$22 Vol.
No
10°C
$39 Vol.
No
11°C
$37 Vol.
No
12°C
$0 Vol.
No
13°C
$37 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$64 Vol.
No
15°C
$35 Vol.
No
16°C
$35 Vol.
No
17°C
$35 Vol.
No
18°C
$35 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$35 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate Moscow’s overnight minimum on September 5 will settle near 13°C amid a mild southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light rain that limit radiational cooling. Current observations show evening temperatures holding at 14–17°C with dew points near 11–12°C, consistent with the market-implied 90% probability for a 13°C low. This setup contrasts with the climatological average low of roughly 10°C, reflecting a warmer-than-normal early-September air mass. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and absence of a stronger cold advection signal, leaving only modest implied odds for outcomes at or below 12°C. Updated NWP runs and final station readings will determine exact resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$374End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate Moscow’s overnight minimum on September 5 will settle near 13°C amid a mild southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light rain that limit radiational cooling. Current observations show evening temperatures holding at 14–17°C with dew points near 11–12°C, consistent with the market-implied 90% probability for a 13°C low. This setup contrasts with the climatological average low of roughly 10°C, reflecting a warmer-than-normal early-September air mass. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and absence of a stronger cold advection signal, leaving only modest implied odds for outcomes at or below 12°C. Updated NWP runs and final station readings will determine exact resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$374End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate Moscow’s overnight minimum on September 5 will settle near 13°C amid a mild southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light rain that limit radiational cooling. Current observations show evening temperatures holding at 14–17°C with dew points near 11–12°C, consistent with the market-implied 90% probability for a 13°C low. This setup contrasts with the climatological average low of roughly 10°C, reflecting a warmer-than-normal early-September air mass. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and absence of a stronger cold advection signal, leaving only modest implied odds for outcomes at or below 12°C. Updated NWP runs and final station readings will determine exact resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions