Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and high pressure over Milan on September 6, with light easterly flow limiting nocturnal cooling and supporting an overnight low near 22°C after a daytime peak of 32–34°C. Radiative cooling under dry conditions and dew points around 15–17°C should prevent deeper drops, though microscale variations in urban heat islands or exact measurement timing introduce uncertainty that keeps 18–21°C outcomes clustered near 30–34% implied probability. Historical September minima average near 16°C but current warm advection from the south sustains elevated baselines, while any slight model shift in wind or humidity could tip resolution toward 22°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 6?
28°C or higher 59%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
18°C or below
34%
19°C
30%
20°C
35%
21°C
30%
22°C
50%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
59%
28°C or higher 59%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
34%
19°C
$2 Vol.
30%
20°C
$6 Vol.
35%
21°C
$3 Vol.
30%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and high pressure over Milan on September 6, with light easterly flow limiting nocturnal cooling and supporting an overnight low near 22°C after a daytime peak of 32–34°C. Radiative cooling under dry conditions and dew points around 15–17°C should prevent deeper drops, though microscale variations in urban heat islands or exact measurement timing introduce uncertainty that keeps 18–21°C outcomes clustered near 30–34% implied probability. Historical September minima average near 16°C but current warm advection from the south sustains elevated baselines, while any slight model shift in wind or humidity could tip resolution toward 22°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and high pressure over Milan on September 6, with light easterly flow limiting nocturnal cooling and supporting an overnight low near 22°C after a daytime peak of 32–34°C. Radiative cooling under dry conditions and dew points around 15–17°C should prevent deeper drops, though microscale variations in urban heat islands or exact measurement timing introduce uncertainty that keeps 18–21°C outcomes clustered near 30–34% implied probability. Historical September minima average near 16°C but current warm advection from the south sustains elevated baselines, while any slight model shift in wind or humidity could tip resolution toward 22°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and high pressure over Milan on September 6, with light easterly flow limiting nocturnal cooling and supporting an overnight low near 22°C after a daytime peak of 32–34°C. Radiative cooling under dry conditions and dew points around 15–17°C should prevent deeper drops, though microscale variations in urban heat islands or exact measurement timing introduce uncertainty that keeps 18–21°C outcomes clustered near 30–34% implied probability. Historical September minima average near 16°C but current warm advection from the south sustains elevated baselines, while any slight model shift in wind or humidity could tip resolution toward 22°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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