**Trader consensus strongly favors a 17°C minimum in Milan on September 5, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after a warm daytime peak near 34°C.** Official guidance from European models aligns with historical early-September climatology for the Po Valley, where overnight lows typically settle in the mid-teens Celsius under anticyclonic conditions. Current surface observations and dew-point trends support continued gradual cooling through the early morning hours. Minor model spread exists around boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud, but the ensemble mean clusters tightly near 17°C. A shift to stronger winds or unexpected moisture advection remains the primary scenario that could push readings to 18°C or hold them at 16°C, though such changes appear unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 5?
17°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$1,496 Vol.
$1,496 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$1,496 Vol.
$1,496 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
15°C or below
$57 Vol.
No
16°C
$184 Vol.
No
17°C
$720 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$98 Vol.
No
19°C
$109 Vol.
No
20°C
$110 Vol.
No
21°C
$93 Vol.
No
22°C
$35 Vol.
No
23°C
$35 Vol.
No
24°C
$20 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$35 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 17°C minimum in Milan on September 5, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after a warm daytime peak near 34°C.** Official guidance from European models aligns with historical early-September climatology for the Po Valley, where overnight lows typically settle in the mid-teens Celsius under anticyclonic conditions. Current surface observations and dew-point trends support continued gradual cooling through the early morning hours. Minor model spread exists around boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud, but the ensemble mean clusters tightly near 17°C. A shift to stronger winds or unexpected moisture advection remains the primary scenario that could push readings to 18°C or hold them at 16°C, though such changes appear unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,496End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 17°C minimum in Milan on September 5, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after a warm daytime peak near 34°C.** Official guidance from European models aligns with historical early-September climatology for the Po Valley, where overnight lows typically settle in the mid-teens Celsius under anticyclonic conditions. Current surface observations and dew-point trends support continued gradual cooling through the early morning hours. Minor model spread exists around boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud, but the ensemble mean clusters tightly near 17°C. A shift to stronger winds or unexpected moisture advection remains the primary scenario that could push readings to 18°C or hold them at 16°C, though such changes appear unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,496End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus strongly favors a 17°C minimum in Milan on September 5, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction runs showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after a warm daytime peak near 34°C.** Official guidance from European models aligns with historical early-September climatology for the Po Valley, where overnight lows typically settle in the mid-teens Celsius under anticyclonic conditions. Current surface observations and dew-point trends support continued gradual cooling through the early morning hours. Minor model spread exists around boundary-layer mixing and any thin high cloud, but the ensemble mean clusters tightly near 17°C. A shift to stronger winds or unexpected moisture advection remains the primary scenario that could push readings to 18°C or hold them at 16°C, though such changes appear unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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