Ongoing habagat southwest monsoon activity, with associated heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver shaping trader sentiment for Manila’s September 6 minimum temperature. Persistent clouds reduce nighttime radiative cooling by trapping outgoing longwave radiation, while high humidity from widespread showers and thunderstorms limits temperature drops through enhanced latent heat and reduced evaporative cooling. Light to moderate westerly winds further promote boundary-layer mixing that tempers sharp declines. These factors typically support minima near 25–26 °C under official PAGASA guidance and GFS/ECMWF consensus, yet the closely matched probabilities around 21–25 °C reflect uncertainty in rainfall timing, local urban heat-island effects, and potential model spread in steering patterns that could allow brief clearer intervals for greater cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 6?
21°C or below 69%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
24°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
69%
22°C
50%
23°C
50%
24°C
30%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
21°C or below 69%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
24°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
30%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing habagat southwest monsoon activity, with associated heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver shaping trader sentiment for Manila’s September 6 minimum temperature. Persistent clouds reduce nighttime radiative cooling by trapping outgoing longwave radiation, while high humidity from widespread showers and thunderstorms limits temperature drops through enhanced latent heat and reduced evaporative cooling. Light to moderate westerly winds further promote boundary-layer mixing that tempers sharp declines. These factors typically support minima near 25–26 °C under official PAGASA guidance and GFS/ECMWF consensus, yet the closely matched probabilities around 21–25 °C reflect uncertainty in rainfall timing, local urban heat-island effects, and potential model spread in steering patterns that could allow brief clearer intervals for greater cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$230End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing habagat southwest monsoon activity, with associated heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver shaping trader sentiment for Manila’s September 6 minimum temperature. Persistent clouds reduce nighttime radiative cooling by trapping outgoing longwave radiation, while high humidity from widespread showers and thunderstorms limits temperature drops through enhanced latent heat and reduced evaporative cooling. Light to moderate westerly winds further promote boundary-layer mixing that tempers sharp declines. These factors typically support minima near 25–26 °C under official PAGASA guidance and GFS/ECMWF consensus, yet the closely matched probabilities around 21–25 °C reflect uncertainty in rainfall timing, local urban heat-island effects, and potential model spread in steering patterns that could allow brief clearer intervals for greater cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$230End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing habagat southwest monsoon activity, with associated heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver shaping trader sentiment for Manila’s September 6 minimum temperature. Persistent clouds reduce nighttime radiative cooling by trapping outgoing longwave radiation, while high humidity from widespread showers and thunderstorms limits temperature drops through enhanced latent heat and reduced evaporative cooling. Light to moderate westerly winds further promote boundary-layer mixing that tempers sharp declines. These factors typically support minima near 25–26 °C under official PAGASA guidance and GFS/ECMWF consensus, yet the closely matched probabilities around 21–25 °C reflect uncertainty in rainfall timing, local urban heat-island effects, and potential model spread in steering patterns that could allow brief clearer intervals for greater cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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