Trader consensus around a 25°C low in Manila on September 5 reflects the city's typical early-September nighttime temperatures during the southwest monsoon season, when persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and maritime influence from Manila Bay limit radiative cooling. Official forecasts and climatological data show overnight minima consistently holding near 25–26°C, with recent model runs confirming stable conditions under overcast skies and light winds. Historical September averages from PAGASA and airport records align closely with this range. A realistic shift below 24°C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow for enhanced cooling, though current atmospheric patterns and ongoing rainfall make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 5?
25°C 99.9%
24°C 20%
21°C or below 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
$984 Vol.
$984 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
25°C 99.9%
24°C 20%
21°C or below 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
$984 Vol.
$984 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
$13 Vol.
No
22°C
$32 Vol.
No
23°C
$42 Vol.
No
24°C
$43 Vol.
No
25°C
$248 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$289 Vol.
No
27°C
$157 Vol.
No
28°C
$40 Vol.
No
29°C
$40 Vol.
No
30°C
$40 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$40 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around a 25°C low in Manila on September 5 reflects the city's typical early-September nighttime temperatures during the southwest monsoon season, when persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and maritime influence from Manila Bay limit radiative cooling. Official forecasts and climatological data show overnight minima consistently holding near 25–26°C, with recent model runs confirming stable conditions under overcast skies and light winds. Historical September averages from PAGASA and airport records align closely with this range. A realistic shift below 24°C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow for enhanced cooling, though current atmospheric patterns and ongoing rainfall make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$984End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around a 25°C low in Manila on September 5 reflects the city's typical early-September nighttime temperatures during the southwest monsoon season, when persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and maritime influence from Manila Bay limit radiative cooling. Official forecasts and climatological data show overnight minima consistently holding near 25–26°C, with recent model runs confirming stable conditions under overcast skies and light winds. Historical September averages from PAGASA and airport records align closely with this range. A realistic shift below 24°C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow for enhanced cooling, though current atmospheric patterns and ongoing rainfall make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$984End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus around a 25°C low in Manila on September 5 reflects the city's typical early-September nighttime temperatures during the southwest monsoon season, when persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and maritime influence from Manila Bay limit radiative cooling. Official forecasts and climatological data show overnight minima consistently holding near 25–26°C, with recent model runs confirming stable conditions under overcast skies and light winds. Historical September averages from PAGASA and airport records align closely with this range. A realistic shift below 24°C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow for enhanced cooling, though current atmospheric patterns and ongoing rainfall make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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