Recent short-term forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project Guangzhou reaching a daily maximum of 35°C on September 5, driven by a warm, humid subtropical air mass over the Pearl River Delta, light winds reducing vertical mixing, and daytime solar heating despite scattered thunderstorm activity. This aligns with early-September climatology for the region, where highs typically range 32–34°C. The market’s near-100% implied probability for 35°C reflects tight model consensus and limited upside risk for 37°C or higher. A stronger-than-forecast convective outbreak or unexpected influx of cooler marine air could lower the peak, though current guidance shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$134,834 Vol.
$134,834 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$134,834 Vol.
$134,834 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
27°C or below
$565 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,662 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,826 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,702 Vol.
No
31°C
$9,786 Vol.
No
32°C
$10,301 Vol.
No
33°C
$14,703 Vol.
No
34°C
$16,779 Vol.
No
35°C
$35,652 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$23,545 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$13,314 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project Guangzhou reaching a daily maximum of 35°C on September 5, driven by a warm, humid subtropical air mass over the Pearl River Delta, light winds reducing vertical mixing, and daytime solar heating despite scattered thunderstorm activity. This aligns with early-September climatology for the region, where highs typically range 32–34°C. The market’s near-100% implied probability for 35°C reflects tight model consensus and limited upside risk for 37°C or higher. A stronger-than-forecast convective outbreak or unexpected influx of cooler marine air could lower the peak, though current guidance shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$134,834End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project Guangzhou reaching a daily maximum of 35°C on September 5, driven by a warm, humid subtropical air mass over the Pearl River Delta, light winds reducing vertical mixing, and daytime solar heating despite scattered thunderstorm activity. This aligns with early-September climatology for the region, where highs typically range 32–34°C. The market’s near-100% implied probability for 35°C reflects tight model consensus and limited upside risk for 37°C or higher. A stronger-than-forecast convective outbreak or unexpected influx of cooler marine air could lower the peak, though current guidance shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$134,834End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-term forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project Guangzhou reaching a daily maximum of 35°C on September 5, driven by a warm, humid subtropical air mass over the Pearl River Delta, light winds reducing vertical mixing, and daytime solar heating despite scattered thunderstorm activity. This aligns with early-September climatology for the region, where highs typically range 32–34°C. The market’s near-100% implied probability for 35°C reflects tight model consensus and limited upside risk for 37°C or higher. A stronger-than-forecast convective outbreak or unexpected influx of cooler marine air could lower the peak, though current guidance shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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