**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Madrid on September 6, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or variable winds and no significant frontal passage.** This reflects ongoing warm-air advection and high pressure maintaining elevated overnight lows well above the 1991–2020 average of ~17°C. Recent model runs show only modest cooling from prior days’ heat, with daytime peaks still reaching 34–36°C. The market’s elevated implied probability for 21°C or below (48%) alongside notable support for 22°C (26.5%) likely stems from traders weighting historical September norms, potential for localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, or slight model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind. The 23.5% on 31°C or higher appears driven by uncertainty around exact timing of the daily minimum or possible measurement nuances, though official guidance does not support such warmth at night. Upcoming AEMET updates and final observational data will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
21°C or below 48%
31°C or higher 47%
22°C 27%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
48%
22°C
27%
23°C
22%
24°C
13%
25°C
15%
26°C
14%
27°C
15%
28°C
7%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
47%
21°C or below 48%
31°C or higher 47%
22°C 27%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
48%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
13%
25°C
$0 Vol.
15%
26°C
$0 Vol.
14%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
7%
29°C
$0 Vol.
6%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Madrid on September 6, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or variable winds and no significant frontal passage.** This reflects ongoing warm-air advection and high pressure maintaining elevated overnight lows well above the 1991–2020 average of ~17°C. Recent model runs show only modest cooling from prior days’ heat, with daytime peaks still reaching 34–36°C.
The market’s elevated implied probability for 21°C or below (48%) alongside notable support for 22°C (26.5%) likely stems from traders weighting historical September norms, potential for localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, or slight model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind. The 23.5% on 31°C or higher appears driven by uncertainty around exact timing of the daily minimum or possible measurement nuances, though official guidance does not support such warmth at night. Upcoming AEMET updates and final observational data will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Madrid on September 6, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or variable winds and no significant frontal passage.** This reflects ongoing warm-air advection and high pressure maintaining elevated overnight lows well above the 1991–2020 average of ~17°C. Recent model runs show only modest cooling from prior days’ heat, with daytime peaks still reaching 34–36°C.
The market’s elevated implied probability for 21°C or below (48%) alongside notable support for 22°C (26.5%) likely stems from traders weighting historical September norms, potential for localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, or slight model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind. The 23.5% on 31°C or higher appears driven by uncertainty around exact timing of the daily minimum or possible measurement nuances, though official guidance does not support such warmth at night. Upcoming AEMET updates and final observational data will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Madrid on September 6, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or variable winds and no significant frontal passage.** This reflects ongoing warm-air advection and high pressure maintaining elevated overnight lows well above the 1991–2020 average of ~17°C. Recent model runs show only modest cooling from prior days’ heat, with daytime peaks still reaching 34–36°C. The market’s elevated implied probability for 21°C or below (48%) alongside notable support for 22°C (26.5%) likely stems from traders weighting historical September norms, potential for localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, or slight model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind. The 23.5% on 31°C or higher appears driven by uncertainty around exact timing of the daily minimum or possible measurement nuances, though official guidance does not support such warmth at night. Upcoming AEMET updates and final observational data will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions