**Forecast consensus for Istanbul on September 6 points to a minimum near 20–23°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity, producing modest overnight radiative cooling.** Multiple models show daytime highs of 29–32°C followed by gradual evening declines, with the daily low most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours. The tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 17–21°C outcomes reflect minor inter-model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages (around 17°C low) provide context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
22°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
44%
14°C
50%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
26%
22°C
50%
23°C or higher
44%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
22°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$10 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Istanbul on September 6 points to a minimum near 20–23°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity, producing modest overnight radiative cooling.** Multiple models show daytime highs of 29–32°C followed by gradual evening declines, with the daily low most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours. The tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 17–21°C outcomes reflect minor inter-model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages (around 17°C low) provide context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Istanbul on September 6 points to a minimum near 20–23°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity, producing modest overnight radiative cooling.** Multiple models show daytime highs of 29–32°C followed by gradual evening declines, with the daily low most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours. The tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 17–21°C outcomes reflect minor inter-model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages (around 17°C low) provide context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for Istanbul on September 6 points to a minimum near 20–23°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity, producing modest overnight radiative cooling.** Multiple models show daytime highs of 29–32°C followed by gradual evening declines, with the daily low most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours. The tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 17–21°C outcomes reflect minor inter-model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages (around 17°C low) provide context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated short-range model runs and official station observations will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions